Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment

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dc.contributor.authorSkinner, Daniel J. C.
dc.contributor.authorRocks, Sophie A.
dc.contributor.authorPollard, Simon J. T.
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-20T11:18:55Z
dc.date.available2017-03-20T11:18:55Z
dc.date.issued2017-03-08
dc.description.abstractA means for identifying and prioritising the treatment of uncertainty (UnISERA) in environmental risk assessments (ERAs) is tested, using three risk domains where ERA is an established requirement and one in which ERA practice is emerging. UnISERA's development draws on 19 expert elicitations across genetically modified higher plants, particulate matter, and agricultural pesticide release and is stress tested here for engineered nanomaterials (ENM). We are concerned with the severity of uncertainty; its nature; and its location across four accepted stages of ERAs. Using an established uncertainty scale, the risk characterisation stage of ERA harbours the highest severity level of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating expressions of risk. Combined epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is the dominant nature of uncertainty. The dominant location of uncertainty is associated with data in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. Testing UnISERA produced agreements of 55%, 90%, and 80% for the severity level, nature and location dimensions of uncertainty between the combined case studies and the ENM stress test. UnISERA enables environmental risk analysts to prioritise risk assessment phases, groups of tasks, or individual ERA tasks and it can direct them towards established methods for uncertainty treatment.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationSkinner DJC, Rocks SA, Pollard SJT, (2017) Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment, Environmental Pollution, Volume 225, June 2017, pp. 390-402en_UK
dc.identifier.cris16966814
dc.identifier.issn0269-7491
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.065
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/11620
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_UK
dc.subjectIdentificationen_UK
dc.subjectEnvironmentalen_UK
dc.subjectRisken_UK
dc.subjectAssessmenten_UK
dc.titleWhere do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessmenten_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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