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Browsing by Author "McNaught, Ken R."

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Comparing a simulation model with various analytic models of the international diffusion of consumer technology

Swinerd, Chris; McNaught, Ken R. (Elsevier, 2015-09-28)

In this paper we propose and evaluate a method for studying technology adoption at the national level using hybrid simulation. A hybrid simulation model is developed which combines elements of system dynamics and agent-based ...
Design classes for hybrid simulations involving agent-based and system dynamics models

Swinerd, C.; McNaught, Ken R. (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2012-06-30)

Hybrid simulation involves the use of multiple simulation paradigms, and is becoming an increasingly common approach to modelling modern, complex systems. Despite growing interest in its use, little guidance exists for ...
Engineering maintenance decision-making with unsupported judgement under operational constraints

Green, Richard N.; McNaught, Ken R.; Saddington, A. J. (Elsevier, 2022-05-10)

In operational engineering maintenance situations, limitations on time, resource or the information available often inhibit rigorous analysis on complex decision problems. Decision-makers who are compelled to act in such ...
Introducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversion

Collett, Gareth; Ladyman, Melissa; Temple, Tracey; Hazael, Rachael; McNaught, Ken R. (Springer, 2023-08-21)

Countering improvised explosive devices (C-IED) is a significant theme of the twenty-first century, particularly in regions with limited governance and a fragile rule of law. Many strands of activity are involved, with ...
Simulating the diffusion of technological innovation with an integrated hybrid agent-based system dynamics model

Swinerd, Chris; McNaught, Ken R. (Taylor and Francis, 2014-02-28)

The potential of hybrid models to enhance simulations of the real world is explored. While the scope for design of such models is large, the focus here brings together agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) modelling ...
Supporting operational decision making concerning aircraft structural integrity damage identified during maintenance.

Green, Richard N. (2021-06)

Military aircraft operations balance delivery pressures and engineering risks. Aircraft structural damage incurred in-service creates complex risk decision problems for managers deliberating maintenance activity such as ...
Towards a better framework for estimative intelligence – addressing quality through a systematic approach to uncertainty handling

Isaksen, Bjorn G. M.; McNaught, Ken R. (Taylor and Francis, 2023-06-22)

The analytic standards governing the production of intelligence are outlined in a number of Intelligence Community Directives (ICDs). In this paper, we are concerned with ICDs 203, 206 and 208 and, in particular, how these ...
Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence–challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives.

Bg, Isaksen; McNaught, Ken R. (Taylor and Francis, 2019-02-22)

Important assessments of events and activities relating to military, terrorist and hybrid adversaries and the intentions of foreign governments, are made every day, usually involving subjective or ‘estimative’ probabilities ...
Using Bayesian Networks to forecast spares demand from equipment failures in a changing service logistics context

Boutselis, Petros; McNaught, Ken R. (Elsevier, 2018-06-28)

A problem faced by some Logistic Support Organisations (LSOs) is that of forecasting the demand for spare parts, corresponding to equipment failures within the system. Here we are particularly concerned with a final phase ...

Browsing by Author "McNaught, Ken R."

Browsing by Author "McNaught, Ken R."

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