Introducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversion

Countering improvised explosive devices (C-IED) is a significant theme of the twenty-first century, particularly in regions with limited governance and a fragile rule of law. Many strands of activity are involved, with human interaction proving difficult to predict. However, Bayesian belief updating (used across several academic fields to provide insight into human behaviours) has never been considered. Given the breadth of C-IED, this research focusses on a state affected by conflict, and where illicit diversion of explosive chemical precursors (ECP) for IED manufacture is supported by the population. It aims to represent (both visually and probabilistically) a methodology by which human relationships could be better understood, thereby promoting belief updating as new evidence becomes available. Such belief updating would refine focus and improve resource mobilisation.