Browsing by Author "Harris, Neil"
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Item Open Access Atmospheric isoprene measurements reveal larger-than-expected Southern Ocean emissions(Springer Nature, 2024-03-22) Ferracci, Valerio; Weber, James; Bolas, Conor G.; Robinson, Andrew D.; Tummon, Fiona; Rodríguez-Ros, Pablo; Cortés-Greus, Pau; Baccarini, Andrea; Jones, Roderic L.; Galí, Martí; Simó, Rafel; Schmale, Julia; Harris, NeilIsoprene is a key trace component of the atmosphere emitted by vegetation and other organisms. It is highly reactive and can impact atmospheric composition and climate by affecting the greenhouse gases ozone and methane and secondary organic aerosol formation. Marine fluxes are poorly constrained due to the paucity of long-term measurements; this in turn limits our understanding of isoprene cycling in the ocean. Here we present the analysis of isoprene concentrations in the atmosphere measured across the Southern Ocean over 4 months in the summertime. Some of the highest concentrations ( >500 ppt) originated from the marginal ice zone in the Ross and Amundsen seas, indicating the marginal ice zone is a significant source of isoprene at high latitudes. Using the United Kingdom Earth System Model we show that current estimates of sea-to-air isoprene fluxes underestimate observed isoprene by a factor >20. A daytime source of isoprene is required to reconcile models with observations. The model presented here suggests such an increase in isoprene emissions would lead to >8% decrease in the hydroxyl radical in regions of the Southern Ocean, with implications for our understanding of atmospheric oxidation and composition in remote environments, often used as proxies for the pre-industrial atmosphere.Item Open Access CH4 emission estimates from an active landfill site inferred from a combined approach of CFD modelling and in situ FTIR measurements(European Geosciences Union / Copernicus Publications, 2017-04-03) Sonderfeld, Hannah; Bösch, Hartmut; Jeanjean, Antoine P. R.; Riddick, Stuart N.; Grant, Allen; Ars, Sébastien; Davies, Stewart; Harris, Neil; Humpage, Neil; Leigh, Roland; Pitt, JosephGlobally, the waste sector contributes to nearly a fifth of anthropogenic methane emitted to the atmosphere and is the second largest source of methane in the UK. In recent years great improvements to reduce those emissions have been achieved by installation of methane recovery systems at landfill sites and subsequently methane emissions reported in national emission inventories have been reduced. Nevertheless, methane emissions of landfills remain uncertain and quantification of emission fluxes is essential to verify reported emission inventories and to monitor changes in emissions. Here we present a new approach for methane emission quantification from a complex source like a landfill site by applying a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to calibrated in situ measurements of methane as part of a field campaign at a landfill site near Ipswich, UK, in August 2014. The methane distribution for different meteorological scenarios is calculated with the CFD model and compared to methane mole fractions measured by an in situ Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer downwind of the prevailing wind direction. Assuming emissions only from the active site, a mean daytime flux of 0.83 mg m−2 s−1, corresponding to 53.26 kg h−1, was estimated. The addition of a secondary source area adjacent to the active site, where some methane hotspots were observed, improved the agreement between the simulated and measured methane distribution. As a result, the flux from the active site was reduced slightly to 0.71 mg m−2 s−1 (45.56 kg h−1), at the same time an additional flux of 0.32 mg m−2 s−1 (30.41 kg h−1) was found from the secondary source area. This highlights the capability of our method to distinguish between different emission areas of the landfill site, which can provide more detailed information about emission source apportionment compared to other methods deriving bulk emissions.Item Open Access Continuous isoprene measurements in a UK temperate forest for a whole growing season: effects of drought stress during the 2018 heatwave(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020-07-08) Ferracci, Valerio; Bolas, Conor G.; Freshwater, Ray A.; Staniaszek, Zosia; King, Thomas; Jaars, Kerneels; Otu‐Larbi, Frederick; Beale, John; Malhi, Yadvinder; Waine, Toby William; Jones, Roderic L.; Ashworth, Kirsti; Harris, NeilIsoprene concentrations were measured at four heights below, within and above the forest canopy in Wytham Woods (UK) throughout the summer of 2018 using custom-built gas chromatographs (the iDirac). These observations were complemented with selected ancillary variables, including air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), occasional leaf gas exchange measurements and satellite retrievals of normalized difference vegetation and water indices (NDVI and NDWI). The campaign overlapped with a long and uninterrupted heatwave accompanied by moderate drought. Peak isoprene concentrations during the heatwave-drought were up to a factor of 4 higher than those before or after. Higher temperatures during the heatwave could not account for all the observed isoprene; the enhanced abundances correlated with drought stress. Leaf-level emissions confirmed this and also included compounds associated with ecosystem stress. This work highlights that a more in-depth understanding of the effects of drought stress is required to better characterize isoprene emissions.Item Open Access Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST)(American Meteorological Society, 2017-01-23) Harris, Neil; Bauguitte, Stéphane J.-B.; Nott, G. J.; Wellpott, A.The main field activities of the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) campaign took place in the west Pacific during January–February 2014. The field campaign was based in Guam (13.5°N, 144.8°E), using the U.K. Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 atmospheric research aircraft, and was coordinated with the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) project with an unmanned Global Hawk and the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) campaign with a Gulfstream V aircraft. Together, the three aircraft were able to make detailed measurements of atmospheric structure and composition from the ocean surface to 20 km. These measurements are providing new information about the processes influencing halogen and ozone levels in the tropical west Pacific, as well as the importance of trace-gas transport in convection for the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The FAAM aircraft made a total of 25 flights in the region between 1°S and 14°N and 130° and 155°E. It was used to sample at altitudes below 8 km, with much of the time spent in the marine boundary layer. It measured a range of chemical species and sampled extensively within the region of main inflow into the strong west Pacific convection. The CAST team also made ground-based measurements of a number of species (including daily ozonesondes) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea (2.1°S, 147.4°E). This article presents an overview of the CAST project, focusing on the design and operation of the west Pacific experiment. It additionally discusses some new developments in CAST, including flights of new instruments on board the Global Hawk in February–March 2015.Item Open Access Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer(Nature Publishing Group, 2017-09-13) Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Bekki, Slimane; Dhomse, Sandip; Harris, Neil; Hassler, Birgit; Hossaini, Ryan; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Thiéblemont, Rémi; Weber, MarkAs a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.Item Open Access Development of an urban greenhouse gas modelling system to support a London monitoring network(Wiley, 2020-09-07) Hoare, D.; Jones, R. L.; Harris, Neil; Ferracci, Valerio; Carruthers, D.; Stidworthy, A.; Forsyth, E.; Rigby, M.A greenhouse gas monitoring network is being developed across London that will allow independent evaluation of reported emissions based on atmospheric data. The first site is operational at the Thames Barrier, and in this work, two atmospheric dispersion models (NAME and ADMS‐URBAN) are compared to observed methane concentrations between 5 May 2018 and 31 July 2018. We find that the models simulate some of the major features in the data, with consistent data–model discrepancies suggesting errors in the emissions inventory.Item Open Access Estimating the size of a methane emission point source at different scales: from local to landscape(European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications, 2017-06-29) Riddick, Stuart N.; Connors, Sarah; Robinson, Andrew D.; Manning, Alistair J.; Jones, Pippa S. D.; Lowry, David; Nisbet, Euan; Skelton, Robert L.; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Harris, NeilHigh methane (CH4) mixing ratios (up to 4 ppm) have occurred sporadically at our measurement site in Haddenham, Cambridgeshire, since July 2012. Isotopic measurements and back trajectories show that the source is the Waterbeach Waste Management Park 7 km SE of Haddenham. To investigate this further, measurements were made on 30 June and 1 July 2015 at other locations nearer to the source. Landfill emissions have been estimated using three different approaches at different scales; near source using the WindTrax inversion dispersion model, middle distance using a Gaussian plume (GP) model and at the landscape scale using the Numerical Atmospheric Modelling Environment (NAME) Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling (InTEM) inversion. The emission estimates derived using the WindTrax and Gaussian plume (GP) approaches agree well for the period of intense observations. Applying the Gaussian plume approach to all periods of elevated measurements seen at Haddenham produces year-round and monthly landfill emission estimates with an estimated annual emission of 11.6 GgCH(4) yr(-1). The monthly emission estimates are highest in winter (2160 kg h(-1) in February) and lowest in summer (620 kg h(-1) in July). These data identify the effects of environmental conditions on landfill CH4 production and highlight the importance of year-round measurements to capture seasonal variability in CH4 emission.Item Open Access Estimating the size of a methane emission point-source at different scales: from local to landscape(Copernicus Publications, 2016-11-22) Riddick, Stuart N.; Connors, Sarah; Robinson, Andrew D.; Manning, Alistair J.; Jones, Pippa S. D.; Lowry, David; Nisbet, Euan; Skelton, Robert L.; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Harris, NeilHigh methane (CH4) mixing ratios (up to 4 ppm) have occurred sporadically at our measurement site in Haddenham, Cambridgeshire since July 2012. Isotopic measurements and back trajectories show that the source is the Waterbeach Waste management park 7 km SE of Haddenham. To investigate this further, measurements were made on June 30th and July 1st 2015 at other locations nearer to the source. Landfill emissions have been estimated using three different approaches (WindTrax, Gaussian plume, and NAME InTEM inversion) applied to the measurements made close to source and at Haddenham. The emission estimates derived using the WindTrax and Gaussian plume approaches agree well for the period of intense observations. Applying the Gaussian plume approach to all periods of elevated measurements seen at Haddenham produces year-round and monthly landfill emission estimates. The estimated annual emissions vary between 11.6 and 13.7 Gg CH4 yr−1. The monthly emission estimates are highest in winter (2160 kg hr−1 in February) and lowest in summer (620 kg hr−1 in July). These data identify the effects of environmental conditions on landfill CH4 production and highlight the importance of year-round measurement to capture seasonal variability in CH4 emission. We suggest the landscape inverse modelling approach described in this paper is in good agreement with more labour-intensive near-source approaches and can be used to identify point-sources within an emission landscape to provide high-quality emission estimates.Item Open Access Exploring the coupled ocean and atmosphere system with a data science approach applied to observations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition(EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2021-11-30) Landwehr, Sebastian; Volpi, Michele; Haumann, F. Alexander; Robinson, Charlotte M.; Thurnherr, Iris; Ferracci, Valerio; Baccarini, Andrea; Thomas, Jenny; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Tatzelt, Christian; Henning, Silvia; Modini, Rob L.; Forrer, Heather J.; Lin, Yajuan; Cassar, Nicolas; Simó, Rafel; Hassler, Christel; Moallemi, Alireza; Fawcett, Sarah E.; Harris, Neil; Airs, Ruth; Derkani, Marzieh H.; Alberello, Alberto; Toffoli, Alessandro; Chen, Gang; Rodríguez-Ros, Pablo; Zamanillo, Marina; Cortés-Greus, Pau; Xue, Lei; Bolas, Conor G.; Leonard, Katherine C.; Perez-Cruz, Fernando; Walton, David; Schmale, JuliaThe Southern Ocean is a critical component of Earth's climate system, but its remoteness makes it challenging to develop a holistic understanding of its processes from the small scale to the large scale. As a result, our knowledge of this vast region remains largely incomplete. The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE, austral summer 2016/2017) surveyed a large number of variables describing the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, the freshwater cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biogeochemistry and microbiology. This circumpolar cruise included visits to 12 remote islands, the marginal ice zone, and the Antarctic coast. Here, we use 111 of the observed variables to study the latitudinal gradients, seasonality, shorter-term variations, geographic setting of environmental processes, and interactions between them over the duration of 90 d. To reduce the dimensionality and complexity of the dataset and make the relations between variables interpretable we applied an unsupervised machine learning method, the sparse principal component analysis (sPCA), which describes environmental processes through 14 latent variables. To derive a robust statistical perspective on these processes and to estimate the uncertainty in the sPCA decomposition, we have developed a bootstrap approach. Our results provide a proof of concept that sPCA with uncertainty analysis is able to identify temporal patterns from diurnal to seasonal cycles, as well as geographical gradients and “hotspots” of interaction between environmental compartments. While confirming many well known processes, our analysis provides novel insights into the Southern Ocean water cycle (freshwater fluxes), trace gases (interplay between seasonality, sources, and sinks), and microbial communities (nutrient limitation and island mass effects at the largest scale ever reported). More specifically, we identify the important role of the oceanic circulations, frontal zones, and islands in shaping the nutrient availability that controls biological community composition and productivity; the fact that sea ice controls sea water salinity, dampens the wave field, and is associated with increased phytoplankton growth and net community productivity possibly due to iron fertilisation and reduced light limitation; and the clear regional patterns of aerosol characteristics that have emerged, stressing the role of the sea state, atmospheric chemical processing, and source processes near hotspots for the availability of cloud condensation nuclei and hence cloud formation. A set of key variables and their combinations, such as the difference between the air and sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, sea surface height, geostrophic currents, upper-ocean layer light intensity, surface wind speed and relative humidity played an important role in our analysis, highlighting the necessity for Earth system models to represent them adequately. In conclusion, our study highlights the use of sPCA to identify key ocean–atmosphere interactions across physical, chemical, and biological processes and their associated spatio-temporal scales. It thereby fills an important gap between simple correlation analyses and complex Earth system models. The sPCA processing code is available as open-access from the following link: https://renkulab.io/gitlab/ACE-ASAID/spca-decomposition (last access: 29 March 2021). As we show here, it can be used for an exploration of environmental data that is less prone to cognitive biases (and confirmation biases in particular) compared to traditional regression analysis that might be affected by the underlying research question.Item Open Access A growing threat to the ozone layer from short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons(European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications, 2017-10-12) Oram, David E.; Ashfold, Matthew J.; Laube, Johannes C.; Gooch, Lauren J.; Humphrey, Stephen; Sturges, William T.; Leedham-Elvidge, Emma; Forster, Grant L.; Harris, Neil; Iqbal Mead, Mohammed; Samah, Azizan Abu; Phang, Siew-Moi; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Lin, Neng-Huei; Wang, Jia-Lin; Baker, Angela K.; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Sherry, DavidLarge and effective reductions in emissions of long-lived ozone-depleting substance (ODS) are being achieved through the Montreal Protocol, the effectiveness of which can be seen in the declining atmospheric abundances of many ODSs. An important remaining uncertainty concerns the role of very short-lived substances (VSLSs) which, owing to their relatively short atmospheric lifetimes (less than 6 months), are not regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Recent studies have found an unexplained increase in the global tropospheric abundance of one VSLS, dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), which has increased by around 60% over the past decade. Here we report dramatic enhancements of several chlorine-containing VSLSs (Cl-VSLSs), including CH2Cl2 and CH2ClCH2Cl (1,2-dichloroethane), observed in surface and upper-tropospheric air in East and South East Asia. Surface observations were, on occasion, an order of magnitude higher than previously reported in the marine boundary layer, whilst upper-tropospheric data were up to 3 times higher than expected. In addition, we pro-vide further evidence of an atmospheric transport mechanism whereby substantial amounts of industrial pollution from East Asia, including these chlorinated VSLSs, can rapidly, and regularly, be transported to tropical regions of the western Pacific and subsequently uplifted to the tropical upper troposphere. This latter region is a major provider of air entering the stratosphere, and so this mechanism, in conjunction with increasing emissions of Cl-VSLSs from East Asia, could potentially slow the expected recovery of stratospheric ozone.Item Open Access iDirac: a field-portable instrument for long-term autonomous measurements of isoprene and selected VOCs(European Geosciences Union, 2020-02-19) Bolas, Conor G.; Ferracci, Valerio; Robinson, Andrew D.; Mead, Mohammed Iqbal; Nadzir, Mohd Shahrul Mohd; Pyle, John A.; Jones, Roderic L.; Harris, NeilThe iDirac is a new instrument to measure selected hydrocarbons in the remote atmosphere. A robust design is central to its specifications, with portability, power efficiency, low gas consumption and autonomy as the other driving factors in the instrument development. The iDirac is a dual-column isothermal oven gas chromatograph with photoionisation detection (GC-PID). The instrument is designed and built in-house. It features a modular design, with the novel use of open-source technology for accurate instrument control. Currently configured to measure biogenic isoprene, the system is suitable for a range of compounds. For isoprene measurements in the field, the instrument precision (relative standard deviation) is ±10 %, with a limit of detection down to 38 pmol mol−1 (or ppt). The instrument was first tested in the field in 2015 during a ground-based campaign, and has since shown itself suitable for deployment in a variety of environments and platforms. This paper describes the instrument design, operation and performance based on laboratory tests in a controlled environment as well as during deployments in forests in Malaysian Borneo and central England.Item Open Access Impacts on air dose rates after the Fukushima accident over the North Pacific from 19 March 2011 to 2 September 2015(Public Library of Science, 2022-08-24) Wang, Kuo-Ying; Nedelec, Philippe; Clark, Hannah; Harris, Neil; Kajino, Mizuo; Igarashi, YasuhitoA fleet of thirteen in-service global container ships continuously measured the air dose rates over the North Pacific after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident. The results showed that the elevated air dose rates over the Port of Tokyo and the FDNPS emissions are significantly correlated (log(emission fluxes) = 54.98 x (air dose rates) (R = 0.95, P-value<0.01), and they are also significantly correlated with the Tsukuba deposition fluxes (log(deposition fluxes) = 0.47 + 30.98 (air dose rates) (R = 0.91, P-value<0.01). These results demonstrate the direct impact of the FDNPS emissions on the depositions of radionuclides and the air dose rates over the Port of Tokyo. Over the North Pacific, the correlation equations are log(emission fluxes) = -2.72 + 202.36 x (air dose rates over the northwestern Pacific) (R = 0.40, P-value<0.01), and log(emission fluxes) = -0.55 + 80.19 x (air dose rates over the northeastern Pacific) (R = 0.29, P-value = 0.0424). These results indicate that the resuspension of the deposited radionuclides have become a dominant source in the transport of radionuclides across the North Pacific. Model simulations show underestimated air dose rates during the periods of 22-25 March 2011 and 27-30 March 2011 indicating the lack of mechanisms, such as the resuspension of radionuclides, in the model.Item Open Access Inferring London’s methane emissions from atmospheric measurements(EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2021-04-30) Hoare, Daniel; Jones, Rod L.; Fan, Shiwei; Harris, Neil; Ferracci, Valerio; Carruthers, David; Stidworthy, Amy; Forsyth, Ella; Rigby, MattItem Open Access Influence of Northeast Monsoon cold surges on air quality in Southeast Asia(Elsevier, 2017-07-27) Ashfold, Matthew J.; Latif, M. T.; Samah, Azizan Abu; Mead, Mohammed Iqbal; Harris, NeilOzone (O3) is an important ground-level pollutant. O3 levels and emissions of O3 precursors have increased significantly over recent decades in East Asia and export of this O3 eastward across the Pacific Ocean is well documented. Here we show that East Asian O3 is also transported southward to tropical Southeast (SE) Asia during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) season (defined as November to February), and that this transport pathway is especially strong during ‘cold surges’. Our analysis employs reanalysis data and measurements from surface sites in Peninsular Malaysia, both covering 2003–2012, along with trajectory calculations. Using a cold surge index (northerly winds at 925 hPa averaged over 105–110°E, 5°N) to define sub-seasonal strengthening of the NEM winds, we find the largest changes in a region covering much of the Indochinese Peninsula and surrounding seas. Here, the levels of O3 and another key pollutant, carbon monoxide, calculated by the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis are on average elevated by, respectively, >40% (∼15 ppb) and >60% (∼80 ppb) during cold surges. Further, in the broader region of SE Asia local afternoon exceedances of the World Health Organization's air quality guideline for O3 (100 μg m−3, or ∼50 ppb, averaged over 8 h) largely occur during these cold surges. Day-to-day variations in available O3 observations at surface sites on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and in corresponding parts of the MACC Reanalysis are similar, and are clearly linked to cold surges. However, observed O3 levels are typically ∼10–20 ppb lower than the MACC Reanalysis. We show that these observations are also subject to influence from local urban pollution. In agreement with past work, we find year-to-year variations in cold surge activity related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this does not appear to be the dominant influence of ENSO on atmospheric composition in this region. Overall, our study indicates that the influence of East Asian pollution on air quality in SE Asia during the NEM could be at least as large as the corresponding, well-studied spring-time influence on North America. Both an enhanced regional observational capability and chemical modelling studies will be required to fully untangle the importance of this long-range influence relative to local processes.Item Open Access Is global ozone recovering?(Elsevier, 2018-10-13) Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Harris, Neil; Weber, MarkThanks to the Montreal Protocol, the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine have been declining since their peak in the late 1990s. Global ozone has responded: The substantial ozone decline observed since the 1960s ended in the late 1990s. Since then, ozone levels have remained low, but have not declined further. Now general ozone increases and a slow recovery of the ozone layer is expected. The clearest signs of increasing ozone, so far, are seen in the upper stratosphere and for total ozone columns above Antarctica in spring. These two regions had also seen the largest ozone depletions in the past. Total column ozone at most latitudes, however, does not show clear increases yet. This is not unexpected, because the removal of chlorine and bromine from the stratosphere is three to four times slower than their previous increase. Detecting significant increases in total column ozone, therefore, will require much more time than the detection of its previous decline. The search is complicated by variations in ozone that are not caused by declining chlorine or bromine, but are due, e.g., to transport changes in the global Brewer–Dobson circulation. Also, very accurate observations are necessary to detect the expected small increases. Nevertheless, observations and model simulations indicate that the stratosphere is on the path to ozone recovery. This recovery process will take many decades. As chlorine and bromine decline, other factors will become more important. These include climate change and its effects on stratospheric temperatures, changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (both due to increasing CO2), increasing emissions of trace gases like N2O, CH4, possibly large future increases of short-lived substances (like CCl2H2) from both natural and anthropogenic sources, and changes in tropospheric ozone.Item Open Access Marginal benefit to South Asian economies from SO2 emissions mitigation and subsequent increase in monsoon rainfall(MDPI, 2019-02-08) Glensor, Kain; Harris, NeilSulphate aerosols are dominated by SO2 emissions from coal-burning for the Indian electricity sector and they are thought to have a short term but significant, negative impact on South Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall. This reduction in precipitation in turn can lead to reduced economic outputs, primarily through smaller agricultural yields. By bringing together estimates of (a) the impact of sulphate aerosols on precipitation and (b) the observed relationship between monsoon rainfall and GDP, we present a methodology to estimate the possible financial cost of this effect on the Indian economy and on its agricultural sector. Our preliminary estimate is that the derived benefits could be large enough that around 50% of India’s SO2 emissions could be economically mitigated at no cost or net benefit, although it should be noted that the large uncertainties in the underlying relationships mean that the overall uncertainty is also large. Comparison of the 1952–1981 and 1982–2011 periods indicates that the Indian economy may now be more resilient to variability of the monsoon rainfall. As such, a case could be made for action to reduce SO2 emissions, particularly in the crucial monsoon period. This would have a significant, positive effect on a crucial and large sector in India’s economy and the effects would be visible almost instantly. The recent growth in renewable energy sources in India and the consequent, reduced increase in coal burning means that further financial costs have already been avoided. This impact should be further investigated so that it can be included in cost-benefit analyses of different fuel types in the region. The significant uncertainties associated with these calculations are discussed.Item Open Access Measuring methane emissions from oil and gas platforms in the North Sea(European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications, 2019-08-02) Riddick, Stuart N.; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Celia, Michael; Harris, Neil; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Staunton-Sykes, John; Forster, Grant L.; Kang, Mary; Lowry, David; Nisbet, Euan; Manning, Alistair J.Since 1850 the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, has more than doubled. Recent studies suggest that emission inventories may be missing sources and underestimating emissions. To investigate whether offshore oil and gas platforms leak CH4 during normal operation, we measured CH4 mole fractions around eight oil and gas production platforms in the North Sea which were neither flaring gas nor offloading oil. We use the measurements from summer 2017, along with meteorological data, in a Gaussian plume model to estimate CH4 emissions from each platform. We find CH4 mole fractions of between 11 and 370 ppb above background concentrations downwind of the platforms measured, corresponding to a median CH4 emission of 6.8 g CH4 s−1 for each platform, with a range of 2.9 to 22.3 g CH4 s−1. When matched to production records, during our measurements individual platforms lost between 0.04 % and 1.4 % of gas produced with a median loss of 0.23 %. When the measured platforms are considered collectively (i.e. the sum of platforms' emission fluxes weighted by the sum of the platforms' production), we estimate the CH4 loss to be 0.19 % of gas production. These estimates are substantially higher than the emissions most recently reported to the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) for total CH4 loss from United Kingdom platforms in the North Sea. The NAEI reports CH4 losses from the offshore oil and gas platforms we measured to be 0.13 % of gas production, with most of their emissions coming from gas flaring and offshore oil loading, neither of which was taking place at the time of our measurements. All oil and gas platforms we observed were found to leak CH4 during normal operation, and much of this leakage has not been included in UK emission inventories. Further research is required to accurately determine total CH4 leakage from all offshore oil and gas operations and to properly include the leakage in national and international emission inventories.Item Open Access On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry-climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2018-06-01) Keeble, James; Brown, Hannah; Abraham, N. Luke; Harris, Neil; Pyle, John A.Total column ozone values from an ensemble of UM-UKCA model simulations are examined to investigate different definitions of progress on the road to ozone recovery. The impacts of modelled internal atmospheric variability are accounted for by applying a multiple linear regression model to modelled total column ozone values, and ozone trend analysis is performed on the resulting ozone residuals. Three definitions of recovery are investigated: (i) a slowed rate of decline and the date of minimum column ozone, (ii) the identification of significant positive trends and (iii) a return to historic values. A return to past thresholds is the last state to be achieved. Minimum column ozone values, averaged from 60° S to 60° N, occur between 1990 and 1995 for each ensemble member, driven in part by the solar minimum conditions during the 1990s. When natural cycles are accounted for, identification of the year of minimum ozone in the resulting ozone residuals is uncertain, with minimum values for each ensemble member occurring at different times between 1992 and 2000. As a result of this large variability, identification of the date of minimum ozone constitutes a poor measure of ozone recovery. Trends for the 2000–2017 period are positive at most latitudes and are statistically significant in the mid-latitudes in both hemispheres when natural cycles are accounted for. This significance results largely from the large sample size of the multi-member ensemble. Significant trends cannot be identified by 2017 at the highest latitudes, due to the large interannual variability in the data, nor in the tropics, due to the small trend magnitude, although it is projected that significant trends may be identified in these regions soon thereafter. While significant positive trends in total column ozone could be identified at all latitudes by ∼ 2030, column ozone values which are lower than the 1980 annual mean can occur in the mid-latitudes until ∼ 2050, and in the tropics and high latitudes deep into the second half of the 21st century.Item Open Access Quantifying the vertical transport of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 over the Western Pacific(Elsevier, 2018-09-12) Butler, Robyn; Palmer, Paul I.; Feng, Liang; Andrews, Stephen J.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Donets, Valeria; Harris, Neil; Montzka, Stephen A.; Pan, Laura L.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Schauffler, Sue M.We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D atmospheric chemistry transport model to interpret atmospheric observations of bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) collected during the CAST and CONTRAST aircraft measurement campaigns over the western Pacific, January–February 2014. We use a new linearized, tagged version of CHBr3 and CH2Br2, allowing us to study the influence of emissions from specific geographical regions on observed atmospheric variations. The model describes 32 %–37 % of CHBr3 and 15 %–45 % of CH2Br2 observed variability during CAST and CONTRAST, reflecting model errors in vertical transport. The model has a mean positive bias of 30 % that is larger near the surface, reflecting errors in the poorly constrained prior emission estimates. We find using the model that observed variability of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 is driven by open ocean emissions where there is deep convection. Atmospheric variability above 6 km includes a significant contribution from coastal oceans, but it is still dominated by emissions from the open ocean and by older air masses that originate upwind. In the absence of reliable ocean emission estimates, we use a new physical age-of-air simulation to determine the relative abundance of halogens delivered by CHBr3 and CH2Br2 to the tropical transition layer (TTL). We find that 76 % (92 %) of air masses that originate from the ocean reach the TTL within two (three) atmospheric e-folding lifetimes of CHBr3 and almost all of them reach the TTL within one e-folding lifetime of CH2Br2. Over the duration of CAST and CONTRAST, and over our study region, oceans delivered a mean (range) CHBr3 and CH2Br2 mole fraction of 0.46 (0.13–0.72) and 0.88 (0.71–1.01) pptv, respectively, to the TTL, and a mean (range) Bry mole fraction of 3.14 (1.81–4.18) pptv from source gases to the upper troposphere.Item Open Access Seasonal and long term variations of surface ozone concentrations in Malaysian Borneo(Elsevier, 2016-08-27) Latif, Mohd Talib; Dominick, Doreena; Ahamad, Fatimah; Ahamad, Nur Shuhada; Khan, Md Firoz; Juneng, Liew; Xiang, Chung Jing; Nadzir, Mohd Shahrul Mohd; Robinson, Andrew D.; Ismail, Marzuki; Mead, Mohammed Iqbal; Harris, NeilMalaysian Borneo has a lower population density and is an area known for its lush rainforests. However, changes in pollutant profiles are expected due to increasing urbanisation and commercial-industrial activities. This study aims to determine the variation of surface {O3} concentration recorded at seven selected stations in Malaysian Borneo. Hourly surface {O3} data covering the period 2002 to 2013, obtained from the Malaysian Department of Environment (DOE), were analysed using statistical methods. The results show that the concentrations of {O3} recorded in Malaysian Borneo during the study period were below the maximum Malaysian Air Quality Standard of 100 ppbv. The hourly average and maximum {O3} concentrations of 31 and 92 ppbv reported at Bintulu (S3) respectively were the highest among the {O3} concentrations recorded at the sampling stations. Further investigation on {O3} precursors show that sampling sites located near to local petrochemical industrial activities, such as Bintulu (S3) and Miri (S4), have higher NO2/NO ratios (between 3.21 and 5.67) compared to other stations. The normalised {O3} values recorded at all stations were higher during the weekend compared to weekdays (unlike its precursors) which suggests the influence of {O3} titration by {NO} during weekdays. The results also show that there are distinct seasonal variations in {O3} across Borneo. High surface {O3} concentrations were usually observed between August and September at all stations with the exception of station {S7} on the east coast. Majority of the stations (except {S1} and S6) have recorded increasing averaged maximum concentrations of surface {O3} over the analysed years. Increasing trends of {NO2} and decreasing trends of {NO} influence the yearly averaged maximum of {O3} especially at S3. This study also shows that variations of meteorological factors such as wind speed and direction, humidity and temperature influence the concentration of surface O3.