Browsing by Author "Cordey-Hayes, M."
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Item Open Access Airline deregulation: an analysis under different regulatory and operating environments(1989-07) Etemadi-Nejad Alamdari, F.; Cordey-Hayes, M.Like other transportation modes the airline industry has a long history of government regulation. In recent years however the theoretical and empirical bases for air service regulatory schemes have been questioned by opponents of such policies. In Western Europe there have been pressures for relaxation of regulation of the air transport industry with respect to air fares, service frequency and market access. Because changes in such public policies are likely to have a major impact, there is a considerable interest in their possible implications. It is the objective of this study to explore the interactions between fare and service frequency in different competitive environments, and to examine the rivalrous behaviour of airlines and their possible equilibrium position under deregulation. The study also considers the effect of a competing mode (rail) on air carriers performance under various competitive conditions. The individual carrier's performance is quantified in terms of fare, service frequency, resulting generalised costs, market share and financial results. A competition model is developed by which the objectives set above are achieved. The study is divided into three parts. The first part provides a framework within which the competition model can be built. This part also generates the policy questions which must be addressed, should relaxation of regulation take place in Europe. The second part explains the structure of the competition model and its characteristics. The assumptions upon which the model is built and its limitations are also discussed. The model consists of three sub-models: the market share model, the costing model and the reaction model. In the third part, with the aid of the model the policy questions generated in the first part are addressed and the general implications for carriers operating under different competitive conditions are discussed. Finally the technical and the policy conclusions are discussed. It is generally concluded that: competition results in lower fares and a more efficient airline industry; the impacts of competition are not evenly distributed amongst markets, routes and carriers; and the competition on equal terms amongst carriers plays an important role in maintaining the effectiveness of deregulation.Item Open Access Development of a dynamic model for strategic port planning and investment(Cranfield University, 1985-05) Audo, S.; Cordey-Hayes, M.Different levels of congesti'on are 'encountered in ports all over the world and particularly in developing countries. Depending on the volume of traffic flow over time, the changes of development in the economy and industrial activity and the random arrival and service pattern of ships; the optimum berthing capacity resulting in minimum cost at any future time period has to be determined to avoid undesirable repercussions. The existing methods fail to provide the links between the aggregate economy, demand and optimal berthing capacity for all time periods of the planning horizon, and conventional techniques based on static frameworks are used to arrive at optimal strategies for specific times into the future. This study is an attempt to remedy those difficulties and relate future demand to optimal berthing capacity in an interactive dynamic fashion. Three models are developed: a forecasting model linking seaborne trade to gross domestic product, population, productions consumption and elasticity of demand;, a simulation model relating the various demand levels to different port configurations; and an investment model relating the resulting congestion cost to capital cost, where an optimal strategy in berthing capacity is achieved for the years 19859 19909 1995 and 2000. The last model has been extended using the above mentioned points in time to result in an optimal berthing capacity for any future time period within the planning horizon 1985 - 2000. This model is validated through forecasting, simulating and appraising the 1992 and 1998 results and reducing the amount, costs and time of work by 75 per cent.Item Open Access Dimensions of sustainable urbanism(Cranfield University, 2000-04) Crilly, M.; Cordey-Hayes, M.The study proposes to operationalise sustainable development within an urban environment and at a variety of scales - strategic to neighbourhood. The study examines the convergence of ideas within urbanity and sustainability, identifying inconsistencies and contradictions within current thematic research. It proposes a consensual approach to understanding the linked substantive, analytical and procedural attributes underlying a developing chronology of concepts relating to sustainability. This chronology of ideas provides the basis for a systems-based framework that recognises the complexity of urban areas. The study advocates and introduces an adaptive framework of spatial indicators of urbanism to simplify and communicate an holistic overview of attributes of sustainability. This interpretation of holism is based on thematic (qualitative / quantitative) and scalar (strategic / local) based integration on a consistent (spatial) basis. This adaptive framework is designed to be suitable for locality specific subjective interpretations of sustainability. It is linked to a non-expert methodological 'toolkit' that places an emphasis on currently undervalued qualitative and spatial data collection methods. This is a mixed and multi- method approach to understanding spatial (urban) systems that complements empirical data sets. A series of case studies are used to test and refine qualitative collection from primary and secondary sources and spatialisation methods. Sample material is then used to test the utility and ease of use of GIS for data manipulation, analysis and modelling. Two detailed and complementary applications of the adaptive framework, the data inventory / collection methods and the use of GIS based digital spatial databases are used to illustrate the potential range of applications and highlight problems of use. A number of possible future developments of the study are suggested for maximising the utility of the conceptual approach and a developed spatial database for a variety of agents, exploring additional dimensions of the urban system.Item Open Access A disaggregate trip generation model for the strategic planning control of private car trips to large foodstores(Cranfield University, 1986) Hazel , G. McL.; Cordey-Hayes, M.This thesis sets out to provide a model for the calculation of private car trips to large foodstores based on local area household characteristics. It recognises the weakness in predicting private-car trips to large stores using trip-rates obtained from surveys of stores in other areas. The trip generation model that is sought must be easily applied and must use readily accessible data. It is proposed therefore that a relationship be sought between private- car trips to the stores and the household characteristics, obtainable from census data, of the local catchment area. The model thus obtained would be used for strategic planning control.Item Open Access Factors that influence the receptivity to fault diagnostic learning when a systems approach is applied: a technical transfer study(Cranfield University, 1992-12) Craig, Malcolm; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Seaton, R. A. F.This thesis is concerned with receptivity and response encountered at different levels within organisations when a novel approach to the learning of fault diagnosis skills is introduced. Essentially, the work involved the transfer of a learning technology from research and development on the one hand to the workplace on the other. With only a few exceptions, previous research had taken a highly focused, machinecentred view of fault diagnosis. The same view has been adopted towards the limited range of training that is currently offered in this subject. The overall aim here was to introduce a holistic approach by viewing fault diagnosis as a social process that is conducted within a technical context. To do this, account had to be taken of the complex interactions found between a number of disciplines such as, design, production, quality assurance, buying, maintenance and management. The learning technology that served as a vehicle for the transfer of this systems approach was a series of open learning modules. The modules were produced as part of the project. The methodology was based upon an inductive approach that involved the interpretation of qualitative data; this was done using a triangulation of research methods: case studies, critical incidents, and survey questionnaire. The sample, of both large and small organisations, was designed to provide a mix of different types of manufacturing and service industries. In each case, the practice of fault diagnosis skills continues to be a critical influence upon business performance. Different factors arose at different levels within each organisation, and betweenorganisation factor differences are also identified. Apart from the production of open learning material, the contribution made to the subject area is of new insights into the mechanism used for technology transfer within companies, and the identification of factors that either facilitate or hinder transfer of this kind. There is also a contribution to the debate about how the theory of systems thinking can be applied in a prescriptive way as opposed to the more common descriptive delivery. Recommendations are made for further developmento f the learning technology.Item Open Access Inward technology transfer as an interactive process: A case study of ICI.(Cranfield University, 1993-11) Trott, Paul; Cordey-Hayes, M.This thesis sets out to explore the area of inward technology transfer and in particular the notion of "receptivity". A conceptual framework is developed which identifies four major components of the inward technology transfer process. These are: "Awareness"- "Association"-"Assimilation"-"Application". Using this conceptual device a series of investigations are undertaken into three of these components. These studies are conducted within a number of businesses within ICI Chemicals and Polymers Ltd. A combination of structured and semi-structured interviews are used along with cognitive mapping to uncover the factors involved. A process theory approach is used in this thesis to uncover not only the key variables that affect inward technology transfer but also how they affect it. Hence, a number of models are developed showing the sequencing of the variables uncovered. The results of the analysis reveal the importance of technology scanning and prior knowledge in enabling organisations to recognise the value of external information, to assimilate this with internal capabilities and to apply it for commercial ends. The implications of these findings with respect to technology policy in the UK are also discussed.Item Open Access Monetary valuation of the environmental impacts of road transport : a stated preference approach(Cranfield University, 1998-09) Nelson, P. S.; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Towriss, JohnThe impact of road transport and road transport infrastructure on the environment is an important public issue in the United Kingdom today. Economists have suggested that the present Trunk Road appraisal process undervalues the environmental impact of road schemes because environmental impacts are not included in the monetary cost-benefit process, i.e. they are externalised. Furthermore, critics state that the present evaluation process is complicated by the number and type of qualitative and quantitative measures of environmental impact, this leads to confusion and non-standardisation in the decision-making process. In answer to these criticisms it has been suggested that monetary values of environmental impacts should be incorporated into the Trunk Road appraisal process, i.e. placing environmental benefits or losses into the cost-benefit framework and hence simplifying the decision-making process. This research identified the present methods of monetary valuation, and showed that these have insufficient institutional or public acceptability to be used for the purpose of monetary valuation in this case. This research therefore examined a new methodology for placing values on environmental impacts. i.e. Stated Preference (SP) techniques. SP determines implicit valuations by asking people to trade-off between a number of different choice situations. SP techniques are widely used throughout the transport industry for placing monetary values on factors such as journey time and ride quality. The research was successful in gaining statistically significant monetary values for Road Safety and Air Quality and respondents were able to understand the SP experiments and to trade logically between choice scenarios. However, the research identified that particular care is required when measuring and representing environmental attributes and attribute levels to respondents, as these impact on the valuations gained. Further research is also required to define the reasons for significant variation within the response data. The reasons for this variation need to be investigated further so that significant valuations can be obtained that relate to the whole population.Item Open Access A multiple perspective approach towards the assessment and development of expert systems in manufacturing. Volume 1(1991-02) Holden, Peter D.; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Towriss, JohnCurrent approaches to technology innovation often fail because they are conceived and assessed from a single perspective or dimension. Thus, current considerations in expert systems development are characterised by a strong focus upon the technology and technical issues without a prior process of wider appraisal and technology assessment. A central theme of this study is that the business, organisational and human factors, which determine how effectively the technology will be used in practice, must be an integral part of the assessment process. The thesis describes a ‘multiple perspective approach’ to technology assessment applied to expert systems innovation in a large manufacturing organisation. This research therefore embraces detailed technical, organisational and individual perspectives of expert systems assessment and development and describes how each perspective adds new concepts, methods and tools. In practice, this has meant modelling activities and information flows in a two-site manufacturing organisation, the identification of a variety of potential areas for expert systems development, the narrowing down and selection of particular areas according to technical, organisational, business and personal criteria, and the eventual design, development, ‘operationalisation’ and evaluation of a single application. This study is placed in a wider context by complementary analyses of other manufacturing users and suppliers of expert systems. The work aims to contribute towards an understanding of expert systems innovation and to improved methodologies for technology assessment and technology transfer.Item Open Access Partnering as a process to facilitate knowledge transfer(Cranfield University, 1996-03) Beecham , Matthew; Cordey-Hayes, M.Item Open Access Perceptual congruence and change : non-urban communities and land-use planning(Cranfield University, 1991-11) Lemon, M.; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Seaton, R. A. F.The planning and management of change has tended to be directed towards the achievement of end states. Adaptive procedures are generally undertaken when it is felt that these end states will not be reached and intervention is necessary. This intervention is usually determined by the technical and organizational criteria of the management system. This thesis argues, using the land-use planning system as a central example, that such an approach to change management fails to acknowledge the diversity of the process. Two points are considered to be fundamental to this argument. Firstly, that diversity is the generator of change, and not merely an inconvenient constraint upon its management Secondly, change follows multi-dimensional pathways (through time, across space, and between themes), that do not conform to technical, linear. management criteria. Failure to recognise these points inevitably hinders the ability of management systems to adapt to the uncertainty of the environment for which they have assumed responsibility. One measure of this failure is the mis-match between the agenda set by the managers of change, and that which is desired by the consumers of the process. The thesis supports the need for integrated management systems that are cognizant of, and driven by, the variety which is identified within the consumer agenda. The field work for the study considers ways of identifying the nature and extent of this variety. It will be argued that individuals interpret, negotiate, and effect change interactively with the wider social system. This interaction combines with the social and physical environments encountered by individuals in their daily lives, to define a 'sense of place'. A multi-method approach is developed which uses the demographic attributes of the . study village as bench marks that will allow comparison with other localities, and place it on an urban - rural continuum. This quantitative data also provides a means by which the variety of qualitative data can be assessed, and upon which provisional classifications about how particular groupings respond to change can be based. An interview and questionnaire instrument will be introduced. This will enable respondents to construct their own cognitive pathways of how changes which are pertinent to the local environment have evolve~. These pathways are then compared with the criteria Identified In land-use planning documentation, and the level of congruence between the two examined.Item Open Access Probabilistic risk assessment modelling for passenger aircraft fire safety(Cranfield University, 1997-04) Macey, P.; Cordey-Hayes, M.This thesis describes the development of a computer simulation model for the investigation of airliner fire accident safety. The aim of the work has been to create a computer-based analysis tool that generates representative aircraft accident scenarios and then simulates their outcome in terms of passenger injuries and fatalities. The details of the accident scenarios are formulated to closely match the type of events that are known to have occurred in aircraft accidents over the last 40 years. This information has been obtained by compiling a database and undertaking detailed analysis of approximately 200 airliner fire accidents. In addition to utilising historical data, the modelling work has incorporated many of the key findings obtained from experimental research undertaken by the world's air safety community. An unusual feature of the simulation process is that all critical aspects of the accident scenario have been analysed and catered for in the formative stages of the programme development. This has enabled complex effects, such as cabin crash disruption, impact trauma injuries, fire spread, smoke incapacitation and passenger evacuation to be simulated in a balanced and integrated manner. The study is intended to further the general appreciation and understanding of the complex events that lead to fatalities in aircraft fire accidents. This is achieved by analysing all contributory factors that are likely to arise in real fire accident scenarios and undertaking quantitative risk assessment through the use of novel simulation methods. Future development of the research could potentially enable the undertaking of a systematic exploration and appraisal of the effectiveness of both current and future aircraft fire safety policies.Item Open Access Technology assimilation: understanding the user - IT professional relationship(1994-09) Hinton, C. Matthew; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Mayon-White, W.It is argued that a substantial gulf exists between the investment made in technology and the ability of organisations to realise significant improvements in business performance. In the fields of Innovation and Technology Transfer there have been developments in the application of more process focused and human elements as a way of addressing the deficiencies of the previous generation of linear and more structured research. In this thesis the conceptual models from such research have been adapted and modified in order to apply it to the specific problem of the adoption and assimilation of information technology (IT). The conceptual models are operationalised through a set of research activities which include investigation into the congruence between technology deliverers and recipients, the technocratic nature of the IT professional role (as determined by employers), the values and perceptions of IT managers, the preoccupation of the IT research and practitioner literature, and the values and perceptions of IT users, as 'service' clients. The substantive conclusions are that the nature of the role of IT professionals is dominated by relatively project orientated and technology orientated characteristics. This, in part, inhibits the ability of organisations to develop strategy and for organisations to consider the service function of IT. This is displayed in the form of an interactive, conceptual model. The thesis also demonstrates the extent to which the distinction between the adoption of an IT technological opportunity, by an organisation, can be usefully distinguished from the problems of assimilating that opportunity into the daily routine of the organisation and therefore for business advantage.Item Open Access Technology transfer and the role of intermediaries(Cranfield University, 1992-11) Lefever , David B.; Cordey-Hayes, M.; Seaton, R. A. F.This thesis sets out to explore limitations of the role undertaken by "technology transfer" agencies in their contribution to successful innovation in UK industry. In particular it identifies the limitations arising from the widely used approach of maximising information Accessibility. A conceptual device is introduced to distinguish the existing emphasis on access to information about technology, from a more interactive and customer centred strategy - Using this simple conceptual model a more detailed analysis of the mismatch between the needs of potential innovators and the activities of information centred technology transfer agencies is undertaken by the use of both survey techniques and a case-study of one particular agency. The results of this analysis suggest that the Accessibility strategy by itself fails to address many of the issues and concerns that UK industry has about innovating and reinforces the need to adopt the more consumer need centred and interactive approach suggested by the model. The implications and potential requirements of such an approach are further developed with respect to transfer agencies and government and European Commission policy.Item Open Access Technology, knowledge translation and policy : conceptual frameworks and case-studies(Cranfield University, 1997-07) Seaton, Roger A. F.; Cordey-Hayes, M.The aim of this thesis is to develop, present and then demonstrate conceptual structures that link together an apparently heterogeneous range of research activity about technology in situations which are the subject of decision-making and policy formulation. Technology is considered to be knowledge as applied in organisations, communities, policy contexts and so on. It thus takes in not only the physical processes and output of the engineering sciences but also the new forms of organisation which use that output, their impacts on, and interactions with, people at large and with the so-called natural systems in which those people are embedded and with which they also interact. Methodologically many of the research publications which this thesis incorporates approach technology related issues and problems from the bottom up, from the most microscopic level of the individual human actor, the smallest feasible level of natural and engineered systems. It is an attempt to redress the top down perspectives which dominate technology and science policy formulation and decision making. This approach often requires research interaction at the level of the individual person or at the lowest level of physical and biological activity relevant to the issue at hand and the appropriate techniques for such interaction are debated and demonstrated. The principles of "translation" or "mapping" which are capable of being applied to a range of interactions between different domains (physically engineered, diverse individuals and knowledge) are developed. The thesis then shows how the representation of responses of people to products and services has evolved and begins to focus on organisations as suppliers of those products and processes. Technology is articulated as knowledge in the context of technology transfer into organisations and the thesis shows how those ideas evolved into the concept of knowledge dynamics in organisations. The problems of interactions which involve bio- physical systems as well as engineered systems and people and the issues of sustainability and policy relevant research are introduced. The nature of integrative interdisciplinary research about these issues is presented as a form of knowledge dynamics. The thesis shows how the concepts above can be used to distinguish between policy and decision relevant issues, and how they help to provide a conceptual framework within which the similarities and differences between knowledge policy in organisations and science research policy can be compared. Thus it is a series of interdisciplinary explorations into complex decision and policy relevant situations in which technology, in the form of knowledge and as the study of interaction between the designed physical world, people, organisations and natural systems, is a constant theme.Item Open Access Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east(Cranfield University, 1979-07) Varaprasad, N; Cordey-Hayes, M.In Britain, and in the other major industrialised countries, a significant redistribution of urban population is taking place. Metropolitan.conurbations are losing population and employment to the surrounding regions, resulting in the rise to urban status of many smaller freestanding towns, and the decline of inner city areas as dominant centres of employment and population. This 'postsuburbanisation' phase of urban development has given rise to the expansion of the metropolitan hinterland, with long commuting distances, while simultaneously the cities are no longer performing their traditional role as attractors and 'seed-beds' of new jobs. The availability of played a major part process. Transport of the metropolitan central role of the of transport has in recent years been icance-by the_rising cost of energy cost of transportaccompanied by the redistribution of jobs within regions new patterns of urban development and relatively cheap transport has always in the population redistribution supply, while assisting the expansion labour market area, also weakens the conurbation. This balancing function given added significance. The resulting continuing could result in perhaps lead to,the reversal of present trends. Existing analytical methods are inappropriate for " exploring these dynamic and interactive processes. Conventional techniques are based on static frameworks;_ with highly disaggregated variables atfa fine spatial scale. Such methodologies do not reflect the interactive nature of urban processes, and they necessarily constrain the planner to a limited number of not widely different alternatives. This study is an attempt to shift the emphasis in urban modelling from the detailed description of structure to a broader description of the processes at work. This necessarily involves an explicitly dynamic modelling methodology, which is more appropriate to the description of rapid change. Two dynamic frameworks framework based on the using continuous time, framework based on the theory, using discrete calibrated for the decentralisation of increase in commuting that has taken place between 1961 and are developed: one is a theoretical logistic growth of an urban area, and the other is a modelling accounting mechanism of kinetic time. Both of these models are South-East, and describe the population from Greater London and the 1976. A range of urban policies involving transport pricing, job and housing supply are tested on these' models, and the resulting population distributions and ı commuting flows demonstrate .the usefulness to policy makers of such broad brushiprocess-descriptive models The theoretical and model1ing'frameWorks presented in this study can potentially be developed into methodol that are complementary to_existing comprehensive transportation - land use models, but at a strategic planning level.