McNaught, K.Zagorecki, A.2012-07-202012-07-202009-11-04http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/3924In this paper, we review the application of dynamic Bayesian networks to prognostic modelling. An example is provided for illustration. With this example, we show how the equipment’s reliability decays over time in the situation where repair is not possible and then how a simple change to the model allows us to represent different maintenance policies for repairable equipmenNumerical modellingNumerical analysisBayesian statistical decision theoryProbability and statisticsRisk assessmentRisk analysisForecastingConference paper