A technical, environmental and economic assessment of future low-carbon heavy-duty powertrain technologies

The development of low-carbon powertrains, to both reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and minimise greenhouse gas emissions, has become a key technological focus for automotive companies. This study investigates, assesses, and critiques future powertrain solutions to determine which technologies demonstrate the ability to both satisfy the environmental requirements while fulfilling the demands of commercial vehicle heavy-duty drive cycles. The implications of low-carbon technologies on the automotive industry are also reviewed. The technologies discussed are identified through; industry research, patent reviews, published low-carbon roadmaps, and academic literature. The internal combustion engine is expected to remain the primary heavy-duty powertrain technology until beyond 2030. Although increased electrification is anticipated, the demands of heavy-duty drive cycles prohibit the use of the current electric and hybrid electric powertrain technologies being developed for light-duty applications. Increasing engine efficiency will remain a key focus of truck and engine manufacturers as the reduction of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions becomes a legislative requirement. Waste heat recovery and parasitic loss reduction technologies are expected to be seen on the majority of new truck models. The use of alternative fuels in the existing diesel powertrain offers the fastest route to reducing both GHG and exhaust emissions. Biofuels which can be blended with mineral diesel and easily integrated with the current infrastructure are likely to dominate the alternative fuels market. It is anticipated that over the next 5 to 10 years the choice of automotive fuels will diversify as countries move to utilise local biomass resource and increase their own energy security. Existing technical competencies, strategic assets, and R&D expertise puts established manufacturers in a good position to maintain their market position and also gain competitive advantage in emerging markets as they aim to implement stricter emissions legislation.