The multi-airline p-hub median problem applied to the African aviation market

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dc.contributor.authorAdler, Nicole
dc.contributor.authorNjoya, Eric Tchouamou
dc.contributor.authorVolta, Nicola
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-21T14:36:13Z
dc.date.available2017-12-21T14:36:13Z
dc.date.issued2017-12-11
dc.description.abstractDespite growth in research on air transport in Africa in recent years, little is known about the adequacy of the infrastructure to sustain potential future air traffic expansion. The continent has experienced growth in domestic, intra- and inter-continental air traffic services over the past two decades that we project will continue over the medium term. Applying a gravity model in which corruption, conflict, common language and land-locked indices contribute to the demand estimation, we forecast annual intra-African growth of 8.1% up to 2030. As witnessed in established markets, deregulation will likely result in hub-spoke network designs in order to accommodate demand efficiently if mobility and access is to be encouraged. In this research, we modify the p-hub median problem in order to identify multiple, economically viable, hub-spoke networks that would adequately serve the intra- and inter-continental demand for air transport. Aside from current hubs, namely Cairo (Egypt), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) and Johannesburg (South Africa), future hubs could include airports in the North that serve European-African flows, such as Algiers, and Nigeria in the West due to its relatively large population and wealth. By 2030, we also find that demand is sufficient to justify an additional hub in central Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Lusaka (Zambia). However, this would be dependent on the implementation of liberalisation policies as set out in the Yamoussoukro Decision.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationAdler N, Njoya ET, Volta N. The multi-airline p-hub median problem applied to the African aviation market. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 107, January 2018, pp. 187-202en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0965-8564
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.11.011
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/12821
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectAfrican aviation marketen_UK
dc.subjectP-hub medianen_UK
dc.subjectDemand forecastingen_UK
dc.subjectCapacity analysisen_UK
dc.titleThe multi-airline p-hub median problem applied to the African aviation marketen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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