A Comparison of Leadership in Controlled Military Democratisation

Military coup d’état displace civilian regimes in the name of cleaning up, but such actions can also challenge the coherence of the military by undermining the recognition of governing institutions. The decision of military regimes to relinquish power from a position of strength and move towards democracy is conditioned by a number of factors, requiring the leader to navigate between the perceived need to maintain political order and military professionalism. This paper considers regime change in Ecuador and Niger as cases of conversion, where elites were able to maintain control in the face of relatively weak organised opposition. The aims of the paper are to (1) determine the factors that can initiate democratisation of military regimes and (2) identify the role of leaders in shaping the process. It is argued that the relative durability of the subsequent regime is determined by the ability of the outgoing military regime to find suitable opposition to maintain order and resist the temptation to return to politics.