Interactive uncertainty allocation and trade-off at early-stage aircraft computational design

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dc.contributor.authorMolina-Cristobal, Arturo
dc.contributor.authorGuenov, Marin D.
dc.contributor.authorRiaz, Atif
dc.contributor.authorvan Heerden, Albert S. J.
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-30T11:10:35Z
dc.date.available2018-01-30T11:10:35Z
dc.date.issued2018-01-13
dc.description.abstractA common probabilistic approach to uncertainty allocation is to assign acceptable variability in the sources of uncertainty, such that pre-specified probabilities of meeting performance constraints are satisfied. However, the computational cost of obtaining the associated trade-offs increases significantly when more sources of uncertainty and more outputs are considered. Consequently, visualizing and exploring the trade-off space becomes increasingly difficult, which, in turn, makes the decision-making process cumbersome for practicing designers. To tackle this problem, proposed is a parameterization of the input probability distribution functions, to account for several statistical moments. This, combined with efficient uncertainty propagation and inverse computation techniques, results in a computational system which performs order(s) of magnitude faster, compared with a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization techniques. Also, to aid decision-making regarding the potential combinations of uncertainty allocation, enablers for visualizing the trade space are proposed. The combined approach is demonstrated by means of a representative aircraft thermal system integration example.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationMolina-Cristobal A, Chen X, Guenov MD, Riaz A, van Heerden ASJ, Interactive uncertainty allocation and trade-off at early-stage aircraft computational design, Proceedings of 2018 AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, 8-12 January 2018, Kissimmee, Florida, USA, Paper AIAA 2018-2170en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp:dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2018-2170
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/12938
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherAIAAen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International*
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0) You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Information: Non-Commercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/*
dc.titleInteractive uncertainty allocation and trade-off at early-stage aircraft computational designen_UK
dc.typeConference paperen_UK

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