Milton Keynes - preliminary estimates of regional traffic flows in 1981

The Milton Keynes Development Corporation and their planning consultants have asked the College Transport Group to investigate the scale of likely regional traffic flows into and out of Milton Keynes. At this stage the emphasis is on providing information for the preparation of a Master Plan for the city itself, rather than detailed traffic estimates for planning transport systems in the surrounding region. Population estimates for 1981 have been obtained from County Councils for areas within a 20 mile radius of the new city, and the proportions attracted to Milton Keynes for work and shopping assessed using gravity model techniques. Separate estimates have been made of work journeys from the city to regional employment and to London. Possible upper and lower limits to these forecasts are included to account for many uncertainties in the absolute and relative growth of population, employment and shopping opportunities in the city itself and in the surrounding region. The results are presented as traffic flews into and out of octant sectors around the city. Flows to the east are greater than to the west with work trip flows of the order of 2,500 person trips each way in the most heavily loaded sectors. A 1981 city population of 150,000 is likely to produce at least 1,500 daily commuters to London using the fast rail service, with an additional 200 commuters from the region using Milton Keynes railway station.