Preliminary modelling of the effects of land use and management change on available water

This report is part of the "Land use, climate change & water availability (Phase 2a)" project which was commissioned and funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).   It provides an initial quantification of the effects of changes in land use and land management on average annual Hydrological Effective Rainfall (AAHER) and Potential Baseflow uising a soil water balance model (WaSim). The effects were considered in present and future climates by using the FutureFlows climate change ensemble. The changes modelled were informed by the plausible future land use and management changes (induced by climate or social change by the 2050s) identified in the literature review in Task B - in particular regarding changes in land use (e.g., changes in agricultural and forest areas) and changes in cropping calendars and sowing/harvest dates.