Evaluation of extreme value predictions for unsteady flow distortion of aero-engine intakes

Date published

2024-02-13

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Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)

Department

Type

Article

ISSN

0742-4795

Format

Citation

Migliorini M, Zachos PK, MacManus DG. (2024) Evaluation of extreme value predictions for unsteady flow distortion of aero-engine intakes. Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power, Volume 146, Issue 9, September 2024. Paper number GTP-23-1520

Abstract

Unsteady flow distortion is of interest for the development air-breathing propulsion systems. These stochastic fluctuations can generate incompatibilities between intakes and aero-engines. Observing the extreme flow distortion events during experimental testing is not guaranteed and statistical models such as Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can be used to estimate the occurrence and magnitude of the fluctuations. However, the current industry standard does not provide guidance on how to apply these methods to obtain useful predictions. This work proposes a systematic process to assess the required number of observations for obtaining statistical convergence of the EVT predictions. This is achieved through shuffling of the data samples and relies on the availability of a sufficiently large initial dataset. This can be adopted by gas turbine engineers to evaluate the data recording requirements and to potentially reduce costs associated with experimental programs.

Description

Software Description

Software Language

Github

Keywords

Aircraft engines, unsteady flow, Fluctuations (Physics), Engineering standards, Engineers, Flow (Dynamics), Gas turbines, Propulsion Systems, Testing

DOI

Rights

Attribution 4.0 International

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Relationships

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Funder/s

UKRI [grant reference no. 2202953]