Barriers to powering past coal: implications for a just energy transition in South Africa

The feasibility of South Africa's just energy transition, as dictated by the speed of phasing out coal and scaling up renewables, will rest on a range of techno-economic, socio-political, and socio-technical factors. Interactions between these dimensions of the transition carry significant implications for energy justice. In response, this paper proposes the Just Transition Feasibility Framework (JTFF) to better evaluate how feasibility constraints may impact South Africa's energy transition ambitions, and its more recent commitments to energy justice. Drawing on qualitative findings from interviews with South African energy experts, the study provides critical insights on the national- and community-scale implications of current energy policies. The analysis highlights socio-political constraints related to the Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme (REI4P) which aggravate energy vulnerabilities and misrecognition of places. In addition to strategically tackling a range of techno-economic and socio-technical constraints which are seen to exacerbate distributive injustice, the South African government should extend the 50 km radius scheme of the REI4P to a wider and more inclusive regional basis. Foremost, policy interventions must seek to realign South Africa's Minerals Energy Complex towards a just transition pathway committed to renewable electrification, community empowerment, and sustainable socio-economic structures.