A probabilistic risk assessment of the national economic impacts of regulatory drought management on irrigated agriculture

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorSalmoral, Gloria
dc.contributor.authorRey Vicario, Dolores
dc.contributor.authorRudd, A.
dc.contributor.authorde Margon, P.
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-27T16:45:34Z
dc.date.available2019-02-27T16:45:34Z
dc.date.issued2019-02-03
dc.description.abstractDrought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstraction for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydro‐meteorological variability is considered within a synthetic dataset of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977‐2004), and for projections for near (2022‐2049) and far (2072‐2099) futures. The probability, magnitude and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, frequent and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationSalmoral G, Rey D, Rudd A, et al., (2019) A probabilistic risk assessment of the national economic impacts of regulatory drought management on irrigated agriculture. Earth's Future, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2019, pp. 178-196en_UK
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.urihttp://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001092
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13950
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherWileyen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectabstraction restrictionen_UK
dc.subjectclimate changeen_UK
dc.subjectirrigationen_UK
dc.subjectcrop yielden_UK
dc.subjectcrop qualityen_UK
dc.titleA probabilistic risk assessment of the national economic impacts of regulatory drought management on irrigated agricultureen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
economic_impacts_of_regulatory_drought_management-2018.pdf
Size:
4.34 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.63 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Staff publications (SWEE)