A parametric whole life cost model for offshore wind farms

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dc.contributor.authorShafiee, Mahmood
dc.contributor.authorBrennan, Feargal P.
dc.contributor.authorArmada Espinosa, Ines
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-30T18:31:08Z
dc.date.available2016-06-30T18:31:08Z
dc.date.issued2016-03-14
dc.description.abstractPurpose Life cycle cost (LCC) considerations are of increasing importance to offshore wind farm operators and their insurers to undertake long-term profitable investments and to make electricity generation more price-competitive. This paper presents a cost breakdown structure (CBS) and develops a whole life cost (WLC) analysis framework for offshore wind farms throughout their life span (∼25 years). Methods A combined multivariate regression/neural network approach is developed to identify key cost drivers and evaluate all the costs associated with five phases of offshore wind projects, namely pre-development and consenting (P&C), production and acquisition (P&A), installation and commissioning (I&C), operation and maintenance (O&M) and decommissioning and disposal (D&D). Several critical factors such as geographical location and meteorological conditions, rated power and capacity factor of wind turbines, reliability of sub-systems and availability and accessibility of transportation means are taken into account in cost calculations. The O&M costs (including the cost of renewal and replacement, cost of lost production, cost of skilled maintenance labour and logistics cost) are assessed using the data available in failure databases (e.g. fault logs and O&M reports) and the data supplied by inspection agencies. A net present value (NPV) approach is used to quantify the current value of future cash flows, and then, a bottom-up estimate of the overall cost is obtained. Results and discussion The proposed model is tested on an offshore 500-MW baseline wind farm project, and the results are compared to experimental ones reported in the literature. Our results indicate that the capital cost of wind turbines and their installation costs account for the largest proportion of WLC, followed by the O&M costs. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to identify those factors having the greatest impact on levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Conclusions The installed capacity of a wind farm, distance from shore and fault detection capability of the condition monitoring system are identified as parameters with significant influence on LCOE. Since the service lifetime of a wind farm is relatively long, a small change in interest rate leads to a large variation in the project’s total cost. The presented models not only assist stakeholders in evaluating the performance of ongoing projects but also help the wind farm developers reduce their costs in the medium–long term.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationShafiee, M., Brennan, M. P., Armada Espinosa, I. (2016) A parametric whole life cost model for offshore wind farms, International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol. 21, Iss. 7, pp. 961-975en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0948-3349
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10054
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherSpringeren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Information: Non-Commercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes. No Derivatives — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.en_UK
dc.subjectCapital expenditureen_UK
dc.subjectCAPEXen_UK
dc.subjectLevelized cost of energyen_UK
dc.subjectLCOEen_UK
dc.subjectMultivariate regressionen_UK
dc.subjectOffshore wind farmen_UK
dc.subjectOperating expenditureen_UK
dc.subjectOPEXen_UK
dc.subjectWhole life costen_UK
dc.subjectWLCen_UK
dc.titleA parametric whole life cost model for offshore wind farmsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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