The effects of Electronic Stability Control (ESC) on fatal crash rates in the United States

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authoraf Wåhlberg, Anders
dc.contributor.authorDorn, Lisa
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-11T13:51:40Z
dc.date.available2024-03-11T13:51:40Z
dc.date.issued2023-12-21
dc.description.abstractProblem: Electronic Stability Control (ESC) is believed to be among the most efficient vehicle safety interventions with reported effects around 50% for fatal single and rollover crashes. However, such estimates have used sample data, which have not controlled for the possibilities of self-selection, behavioral adaptation, increased access to the technology by less safe drivers, and the calculation of effects on very specific categories of crashes. Effects of ESC in the population can therefore be expected to be smaller than is currently believed. Method: National U.S. data for fatal crashes, driving exposure and other control factors, and market penetration of ESC over 1991–2021 were used to calculate whether the trends in fatalities over time in crash rates for singles, rollovers, and fatal crashes in general matched projections from estimates of effectiveness. Results: It was found that downward trends in the relevant crash types were generally present before ESC was introduced, and that the trends thereafter were weaker. Although some trends were consistent with effects of ESC, they were markedly smaller than the projected ones, and could be explained by other factors such as the number of vehicles per capita. At best, the effect for rollovers could be up to two-thirds of previous estimates, no effect was detected for singles, while for all fatal crashes results depended upon the type of analysis performed. These results conflict with conclusions in all published ESC crash sample studies, which have compared vehicles with and without ESC. This discrepancy can be explained by methodological errors in the previous studies using induced exposure methods and self-selected samples. Practical applications: Traffic safety may not be as much improved by technological interventions as believed. Alternative approaches to traffic safety are needed, which do not rely on technology that interferes with driver behavior.en_UK
dc.description.sponsorshipEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: grant number: EP/V026763/1en_UK
dc.identifier.citationaf Wåhlberg AE, Dorn L. (2024) The effects of Electronic Stability Control (ESC) on fatal crash rates in the United States. Journal of Safety Research. Volume 88, February 2024, pp. 217-229en_UK
dc.identifier.eissn1879-1247
dc.identifier.issn0022-4375
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2023.11.008
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/20957
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectInduced exposureen_UK
dc.subjectESCen_UK
dc.subjectRoad traffic crashesen_UK
dc.subjectTraffic safetyen_UK
dc.subjectAutomated featureen_UK
dc.titleThe effects of Electronic Stability Control (ESC) on fatal crash rates in the United Statesen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-11-10

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Effects_of_electronic_stability_control-2023.pdf
Size:
912.06 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.63 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Staff publications (SATM)