Effect of baseline meteorological data selection on hydrological modelling of climate change scenarios

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dc.contributor.authorRemesan, Renji
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-23T10:42:47Z
dc.date.available2016-02-23T10:42:47Z
dc.date.issued2015-09
dc.description.abstractThis study evaluates how differences in hydrological model parameterisation resulting from the choice of gridded global precipitation data sets and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) equations affects simulated climate change impacts, using the north western Himalayan Beas river catchment as a case study. Six combinations of baseline precipitation data (the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Asian Precipitation – Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE)) and Reference Evapotranspiration equations of differing complexity and data requirements (Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves –Samani and Priestley – Taylor) were used in the calibration of the HySim model. Although the six validated hydrological models had similar historical model performance (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) from 0.64-0.70), impact response surfaces derived using a scenario neutral approach demonstrated significant deviations in the models’ responses to changes in future annual precipitation and temperature. For example, the change in Q10 varies between -6.5 % to -11.5% in the driest and coolest climate change simulation and +79% to +118% in the wettest and hottest climate change simulation among the six models. The results demonstrate that the baseline meteorological data choices made in model construction significantly condition the magnitude of simulated hydrological impacts of climate change, with important implications for impact study design.en_UK
dc.description.sponsorshipNERCen_UK
dc.identifier.citationRemesan, R. and Holman, I.P. 2015. Effect of baseline meteorological data selection on hydrological modelling of climate change scenarios. Journal of hydrology, 528, pages 631-642.en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0022-1694
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.026
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9727
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Information: No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_UK
dc.subjectTRMM3B42 V7en_UK
dc.subjectAphroditeen_UK
dc.subjectImpact response surfaceen_UK
dc.subjectEvapotranspirationen_UK
dc.subjectClimate changeen_UK
dc.titleEffect of baseline meteorological data selection on hydrological modelling of climate change scenariosen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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