A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach: irrigation reservoir planning under climate change

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dc.contributor.authorGreen, Michael
dc.contributor.authorWeatherhead, E. K.
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-18T14:01:10Z
dc.date.available2016-04-18T14:01:10Z
dc.date.issued2014-03-01
dc.description.abstractIn the UK, there is a growing interest in constructing on-farm irrigation reservoirs, however deciding the optimum reservoir capacity is not simple. There are two distinct approaches to generating the future daily weather datasets needed to calculate future irrigation need. The change factor approach perturbs the observed record using monthly change factors derived from downscaled climate models. This assumes that whilst the climate changes, the day-to-day climate variability itself is stationary. Problems may arise where the instrumental record is insufficient or particularly suspect. Alternatively, probabilistic weather generators can be used to identify options which are considered more robust to climate change uncertainty because they consider non-stationary climate variability. This paper explores the difference between using the change factor approach and a probabilistic weather generator for informing farm reservoir design at three sites in the UK. Decision outcomes obtained using the current normal practice of 80% probability of non-exceedance rule and simple economic optimisations are also compared. Decision outcomes obtained using the change factor approach and probabilistic weather generators are significantly different; whether these differences translate to real-world differences is discussed. This study also found that using the 80% probability of non-exceedance rule could potentially result in maladaptation.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationGreen, M. and Weatherhead E. K. A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach: irrigation reservoir planning under climate change. Journal of Water and Climate Change, Vol.5 (1), pp13-24.en_UK
dc.identifier.issn2040-2244
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.073
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9825
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherIWAen_UK
dc.rights©IWA Publishing 2014. The definitive peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in the Journal of water and climate change, 5(1), pages 13-24, DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.073, and is available from http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/
dc.titleA critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach: irrigation reservoir planning under climate changeen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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