An agent-based model of farmer decision making: application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regions

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dc.contributor.authorEl Fartassi, Imane
dc.contributor.authorMilne, Alice E.
dc.contributor.authorMetcalfe, Helen
dc.contributor.authorEl Alami, Rafiq
dc.contributor.authorDiarra, Alhousseine
dc.contributor.authorAlonso-Chavez, Vasthi
dc.contributor.authorZawadzka, Joanna Ewa
dc.contributor.authorWaine, Toby W.
dc.contributor.authorCorstanje, Ron
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-24T14:03:36Z
dc.date.available2025-02-24T14:03:36Z
dc.date.freetoread2025-02-24
dc.date.issued2025-04-01
dc.date.pubOnline2025-02-13
dc.description.abstractThe study presents an agent-based modelling framework that integrates behavioural and biophysical models to investigate shared irrigation water management in an arid region. The behavioural model simulates farmers' decisions about their water irrigation sources (dam or groundwater) and whether to continue cultivating in the face of drought. This model was parameterised using survey data. The biophysical model component quantifies the impact of water availability and irrigation sources on soil salinity accumulation and its effects on crop productivity. Applied to the Al Haouz Basin, in Morocco, the integrated model reveals several key findings: (1) Increased groundwater access through water abstraction authorization can initially boost productivity but leads to widespread salinisation and farm abandonment, particularly under climate change scenarios. (2) Scenarios with reduced dam water availability demonstrate that mixed irrigation strategies mitigate short-term productivity losses but fail to prevent long-term soil salinity issues. (3) Land abandonment is significantly influenced by the level of water abstraction authorizations, with higher abstraction leading to more severe environmental degradation and social impacts. (4) Policy scenarios reveal that there is a theoretical optimal level of groundwater abstraction that maximises productivity while minimising land abandonment and salinity build-up. These results highlight the complex trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term sustainability, emphasising the need for holistic water governance policies that balance individual and collective interests.
dc.description.journalNameAgricultural Water Management
dc.description.sponsorshipRothamsted Research
dc.description.sponsorshipThis project is funded by Office Chérifien des Phosphate (OCP group) through the collaboration between Cranfield University (CU), Rothamsted Research (RRes) and Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P).
dc.identifier.citationEl Fartassi I, Milne AE, Metcalfe H, et al., (2025) An agent-based model of farmer decision making: application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regions. Agricultural Water Management, Volume 310, April 2025, Article number 109357en_UK
dc.identifier.elementsID564671
dc.identifier.issn0378-3774
dc.identifier.paperNo109357
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109357
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/23513
dc.identifier.volumeNo310
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037837742500071X?via%3Dihub
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject30 Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciencesen_UK
dc.subject40 Engineeringen_UK
dc.subject4005 Civil Engineeringen_UK
dc.subject3002 Agriculture, Land and Farm Managementen_UK
dc.subject3004 Crop and Pasture Productionen_UK
dc.subject15 Life on Landen_UK
dc.subjectAgronomy & Agricultureen_UK
dc.titleAn agent-based model of farmer decision making: application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regionsen_UK
dc.typeArticle
dcterms.dateAccepted2025-02-02

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