Modeling soil bulk density at the landscape scale and its contributions to C stock uncertainty

Soil bulk density (Db) is a major contributor to uncertainties in landscape-scale carbon and nutrient stock estimation. However, it is time consuming to measure and is, therefore, frequently predicted using surrogate variables, such as soil texture. Using this approach is of limited value for estimating landscape scale inventories, as its accuracy beyond the sampling point at which texture is measured becomes highly uncertain. In this paper, we explore the ability of soil landscape models to predict soil Db using a suite of landscape attributes and derivatives for both topsoil and subsoil. The models were constructed using random forests and artificial neural networks. Using these statistical methods, we have produced a spatially distributed prediction of Db on a 100m × 100m grid which was shown to significantly improve topsoil carbon stock estimation. In comparison to using mean values from point measurements, the error associated with predictions was over three times lower using the gridded prediction. Within our study area of the Midlands, UK, we found that the gridded prediction of Db produced a stock inventory of nearly 8 million tonnes of carbon less than the mean method. Furthermore, the gridded approach was particularly useful in improving organic carbon (OC) stock estimation for fine-scale landscape units at which many landscape-atmosphere interaction models operate.