Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: a review

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dc.contributor.authorIoannou, Anastasia
dc.contributor.authorAngus, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorBrennan, Feargal P.
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-10T10:11:33Z
dc.date.available2017-04-10T10:11:33Z
dc.date.issued2017-03-02
dc.description.abstractThe value of investments in renewable energy (RE) technologies has increased rapidly over the last decade as a result of political pressures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the policy incentives to increase the share of RE in the energy mix. As the number of RE investments increases, so does the need to measure the associated risks throughout planning, constructing and operating these technologies. This paper provides a state-of-the-art literature review of the quantitative and semi-quantitative methods that have been used to model risks and uncertainties in sustainable energy system planning and feasibility studies, including the derivation of optimal energy technology portfolios. The review finds that in quantitative methods, risks are mainly measured by means of the variance or probability density distributions of technical and economical parameters; while semi-quantitative methods such as scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can also address non-statistical parameters such as socio-economic factors (e.g. macro-economic trends, lack of public acceptance). Finally, untapped issues recognised in recent research approaches are discussed along with suggestions for future research.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationIoannou A, Angus A, Brennan F. (2017) Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 74, July 2017, pp. 602-615en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1364-0321
dc.identifier.urihttp://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.082
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/11758
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectRisk-based methodsen_UK
dc.subjectSustainable power generationen_UK
dc.subjectRisken_UK
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_UK
dc.subjectEnergy system planning and feasibilityen_UK
dc.subjectMean variance portfolioen_UK
dc.subjectReal options analysisen_UK
dc.subjectMulti-criteria decision analysisen_UK
dc.subjectMonte Carlo simulationen_UK
dc.subjectScenario analysisen_UK
dc.subjectStochastic optimisationen_UK
dc.titleRisk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: a reviewen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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