A framework for geometric quantification and forecasting of cost uncertainty for aerospace innovations

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dc.contributor.authorSchwabe, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorShehab, Essam
dc.contributor.authorErkoyuncu, John Ahmet
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-20T10:26:35Z
dc.date.available2016-07-20T10:26:35Z
dc.date.issued2016-06-16
dc.description.abstractQuantification and forecasting of cost uncertainty for aerospace innovations is challenged by conditions of small data which arises out of having few measurement points, little prior experience, unknown history, low data quality, and conditions of deep uncertainty. Literature research suggests that no frameworks exist which specifically address cost estimation under such conditions. In order to provide contemporary cost estimating techniques with an innovative perspective for addressing such challenges a framework based on the principles of spatial geometry is described. The framework consists of a method for visualising cost uncertainty and a dependency model for quantifying and forecasting cost uncertainty. Cost uncertainty is declared to represent manifested and unintended future cost variance with a probability of 100% and an unknown quantity and innovative starting conditions considered to exist when no verified and accurate cost model is available. The shape of data is used as an organising principle and the attribute of geometrical symmetry of cost variance point clouds used for the quantification of cost uncertainty. The results of the investigation suggest that the uncertainty of a cost estimate at any future point in time may be determined by the geometric symmetry of the cost variance data in its point cloud form at the time of estimation. Recommendations for future research include using the framework to determine the “most likely values” of estimates in Monte Carlo simulations and generalising the dependency model introduced. Future work is also recommended to reduce the framework limitations noted.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationOliver Schwabe, Essam Shehab, John Erkoyuncu, A framework for geometric quantification and forecasting of cost uncertainty for aerospace innovations, Progress in Aerospace Sciences, Volume 84, July 2016, pp29-47en_UK
dc.identifier.cris14742962
dc.identifier.issn0376-0421
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2016.05.001
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10145
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectCost estimateen_UK
dc.subjectGeometryen_UK
dc.subjectSymmetryen_UK
dc.subjectTopologyen_UK
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_UK
dc.titleA framework for geometric quantification and forecasting of cost uncertainty for aerospace innovationsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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