Predicting post-war US recessions: a probit modelling approach

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dc.contributor.authorAlexiou, Constantinos
dc.contributor.authorTrachanas, Emmanouil
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-20T08:31:43Z
dc.date.available2020-07-20T08:31:43Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-28
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period 1963Q1 to 2018Q2 using multivariate probit models. The evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, as implied by the proponents of the Marxian tradition. Equally significant are the results that relate to manufacturing activity, investment, and inflation. The theoretical argument however, of those who regard the burgeoning growth of private credit as a factor triggering recessions, is not supported by our findings. Finally, interest rates, Tobin's Q, and labour's share of income are not statistically significant, hence implying that the likelihood of these being closely associated with US economic recessions is rather slim.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationAlexiou C, Trachanas M. (2020) Predicting post-war US recessions: a probit modelling approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Volume 54, September 2020, pp. 210-219
dc.identifier.issn0954-349X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.04.009
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/15569
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectUS recessionsen_UK
dc.subjectProfitabilityen_UK
dc.subjectProbit modelsen_UK
dc.titlePredicting post-war US recessions: a probit modelling approachen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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