Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand

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dc.contributor.authorTanguy, Maliko
dc.contributor.authorEastman, Michael
dc.contributor.authorMagee, Eugene
dc.contributor.authorBarker, Lucy J.
dc.contributor.authorChitson, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorEkkawatpanit, Chaiwat
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorHannaford, Jamie
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.contributor.authorPardthaisong, Liwa
dc.contributor.authorParry, Simon
dc.contributor.authorRey Vicario, Dolores
dc.contributor.authorVisessri, Supattra
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-15T08:24:52Z
dc.date.available2023-08-15T08:24:52Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-06
dc.description.abstractDroughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Developing a reliable drought monitoring and early warning system (DMEWS) is essential to strengthen a country's resilience to droughts. However, for a DMEWS to be valuable, the drought indicators provided to stakeholders must have relevance to tangible impacts on the ground. Here, we analyse drought indicator-to-impact relationships in Thailand, using a combination of correlation analysis and machine learning techniques (random forest). In the correlation analysis, we study the link between meteorological drought indicators and high-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices used as proxies for crop yield and forest growth impacts. Our analysis shows that this link varies depending on land use, season and region. The random forest models built to estimate regional crop productivity allow a more in-depth analysis of the crop- and region-specific importance of different drought indicators. The results highlight seasonal patterns of drought vulnerability for individual crops, usually linked to their growing season, although the effects are somewhat attenuated in irrigated regions. Integration of the approaches provides new, detailed knowledge of crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links, which can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions in an improved DMEWS in Thailand and could be applied to other parts of Southeast Asia and beyond.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationTanguy M, Eastman M, Magee E, et al., (2023) Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Volume 23, Issue 7, July 2023, pp. 2419-2441en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1561-8633
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/20081
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherEGU: European Geophysical Unionen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.titleIndicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailanden_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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