Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions

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dc.contributor.authorGarnett, Kenisha
dc.contributor.authorLickorish, Fiona A.
dc.contributor.authorRocks, Sophie A.
dc.contributor.authorPrpich, George
dc.contributor.authorRathe, A. A.
dc.contributor.authorPollard, Simon J. T.
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-12T16:06:30Z
dc.date.available2016-05-12T16:06:30Z
dc.date.issued2016-04-17
dc.description.abstractPoor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationK. Garnett, F.A. Lickorish, S.A. Rocks, G. Prpich, A.A. Rathe, S.J.T. Pollard, Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions, Science of The Total Environment, Volumes 560–561, 1 August 2016, Pages 82-91en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9888
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectHorizon planningen_UK
dc.subjectPolicyen_UK
dc.subjectStrategic decision-makingen_UK
dc.subjectRisken_UK
dc.subjectPrioritisationen_UK
dc.subjectFuturesen_UK
dc.titleIntegrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisionsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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