Climate change impacts on water for irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham. Final Report

This project has undertaken a scoping review and assessment of the impacts of climate change on irrigated horticulture in the Vale of Evesham, an area of intense irrigated production located within the Environment Agency’s Warwickshire Avon CAMS Catchment. The research was based on a combination of methodologies including desk-based review of published and grey literature, computer agroclimatic and water balance modelling, GIS mapping, meetings with key informants and a stakeholder workshop. Future climate datasets were derived from the latest UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKICIP02) climatology, using selected emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. These scenarios were then used to model and map the future agroclimatic conditions under which agriculture might operate and the consequent impacts on irrigation need (depths of water applied) and volumetric demand. This was complimented by a postal survey to abstractors and a stakeholder workshop, to identify, review and assess farmer adaptation options and responses. The key findings arising from the research, implications for water resource management and recommendations for further work are summarised below. Using a geographical information system (GIS), a series of agroclimate maps have been produced, for the baseline and selected UKCIP02 scenario. The maps show major changes in agroclimate within the catchment over the next 50 years. The driest agroclimate zones are currently located around Worcester, Evesham, Tewkesbury and Gloucester, corresponding to areas where horticultural production and irrigation demand are most concentrated. By the 2020s, all agroclimate zones are predicted to increase in aridity. By the 2050s the entire catchment is predicted to have a drier agroclimate than is currently experienced anywhere in the driest parts of the catchment. This will have major impacts on the pattern of land use and irrigation water demand. Cont/d.