Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms

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dc.contributor.authorSkinner, Daniel J. C.
dc.contributor.authorRocks, Sophie A.
dc.contributor.authorPollard, Simon J. T.
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-04T15:42:54Z
dc.date.available2016-08-04T15:42:54Z
dc.date.issued2016-08-01
dc.description.abstractA reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationDaniel J.C. Skinner, Sophie A. Rocks, Simon J.T. Pollard, Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 572, 1 December 2016, pp23-33en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10227
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.164
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectUncertainty dimensionsen_UK
dc.subjectUncertainty managementen_UK
dc.subjectResource allocationen_UK
dc.subjectRisk analysisen_UK
dc.subjectElicitation protocolen_UK
dc.titleWhere do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organismsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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