Accident proneness of bus drivers; controlling for exposure

It is argued that the reason that previous evidence apparently did not support the accident proneness hypothesis was faulty methodology and erroneous interpretations of results. Between time periods correlations of traffic accident records actually show an impressive stability over time when restriction of variance is controlled for. However, stability can be caused by stable differences in exposure.

Correlations of accident records between time periods were analysed comparing full time and part-time bus drivers. For drivers who worked full time, the amount of exposure was held semi-constant while part-time drivers could be expected to work differing hours. If differential exposure causes stability in crash record, then part-time drivers should yield stronger correlations between time periods for crashes compared with full-time drivers.

Between time periods accident correlations for part-time drivers were weaker than the corresponding ones for full time drivers. Correlations increased with increasing variance in the data. Results for all crashes fit in well with other meta-data, while culpable crashes did not, probably due to faulty coding.

The current results support the notion of the tendency to cause traffic accidents as a stable trait within individuals as this is apparently not caused by stable differences in exposure.