Catalysing decentralised renewable energy investment in Nigeria: investor-focused risk evaluation and de-risking strategies

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dc.contributor.authorAbba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim
dc.contributor.authorBalta-Ozkan, Nazmiye
dc.contributor.authorDrew, Gillian H.
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-15T16:00:53Z
dc.date.available2025-05-15T16:00:53Z
dc.date.freetoread2025-05-15
dc.date.issued2025-06-01
dc.date.pubOnline2025-04-16
dc.description.abstractScaling up private investment in Decentralised Renewable Energy (DRE) is crucial for achieving universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa. Tailored de-risking actions based on investors' risk perceptions can facilitate investment. However, current literature provides a fragmented perspective of investor-specific DRE investment risks. Through a multi-step participatory approach involving an online survey, focus groups, and interviews, 40 multidimensional risk factors across six categories were evaluated using the analytical hierarchy process, to establish their significance among four investor groups: development finance institutions, domestic finance institutions, developers, impact investors. Overall, economic and financing risk categories emerged as most critical, while social and environmental risks were least prioritised. However, risk factor priorities varied among different investor groups, highlighting key mutual high-priority risk factors amounting to 37–58 % of risk weighting including currency volatility, low access to low-cost capital, revenue risk, and insecurity. Limited awareness of existing risk mitigation practices, cultural and behavioural barriers to energy use, and path dependence were identified as influential risk drivers. Evidence-based risk mitigation strategies such as priority sector lending mandates, portfolio aggregation, stronger policy implementation, social interventions, collaboration, and capacity development are recommended to facilitate DRE investment. This study serves as a reference for decision-makers to prioritise actions for catalysing DRE investment.
dc.description.journalNameRenewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
dc.description.sponsorshipEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
dc.description.sponsorshipThe first author thanks the Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF) Nigeria for supporting this research through its scholarship programme. Partial research time for Balta-Ozkan is funded by UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council award EP/V006592/1.
dc.identifier.citationAbba ZYI, Balta-Ozkan N, Drew G. (2025) Catalysing decentralised renewable energy investment in Nigeria: investor-focused risk evaluation and de-risking strategies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, Volume 7, June 2025, Article number 100112
dc.identifier.eissn2667-095X
dc.identifier.elementsID672921
dc.identifier.issn2667-095X
dc.identifier.paperNo100112
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2025.100112
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/23893
dc.identifier.volumeNo7
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X2500011X
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectDecentralised renewable energy investment risks
dc.subjectInvestment risk evaluation
dc.subjectRisk mitigation
dc.subjectHolistic risk management
dc.subjectAnalytical hierarchy process
dc.titleCatalysing decentralised renewable energy investment in Nigeria: investor-focused risk evaluation and de-risking strategies
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.subtypeJournal Article
dcterms.dateAccepted2025-04-03

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