Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets

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dc.contributor.authorJenkins, Stuart
dc.contributor.authorCain, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorFriedlingstein, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorGillett, Nathan
dc.contributor.authorWalsh, Tristram
dc.contributor.authorAllen, Myles R.
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-08T11:36:46Z
dc.date.available2021-11-08T11:36:46Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-14
dc.description.abstractThe IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C concluded that anthropogenic global warming is determined by cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the non-CO2 radiative forcing level in the decades prior to peak warming. We quantify this using CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We produce an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), giving a 90% confidence interval of 0.26–0.78 °C/TtCO2, implying a remaining total CO2-fe budget from 2020 to 1.5 °C of 350–1040 GtCO2-fe, where non-CO2 forcing changes take up 50 to 300 GtCO2-fe. Using a central non-CO2 forcing estimate, the remaining CO2 budgets are 640, 545, 455 GtCO2 for a 33, 50 or 66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. We discuss the impact of GMST revisions and the contribution of non-CO2 mitigation to remaining budgets, determining that reporting budgets in CO2-fe for alternative definitions of GMST, displaying CO2 and non-CO2 contributions using a two-dimensional presentation, offers the most transparent approach.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationJenkins S, Cain M, Friedlingstein P, et al., (2021) Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Volume 4, October 2021, Article number 47en_UK
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00203-9
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/17247
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectClimate and Earth system modellingen_UK
dc.subjectClimate changeen_UK
dc.subjectClimate-change mitigationen_UK
dc.titleQuantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgetsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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