Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorFronzek, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorCarter, Timothy R.
dc.contributor.authorPirttioja, Nina
dc.contributor.authorAlkemade, Rob
dc.contributor.authorAudsley, Eric
dc.contributor.authorBugmann, Harald
dc.contributor.authorFlorke, Martina
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorIto, Akihiko
dc.contributor.authorJanes-Bassett, Victoria
dc.contributor.authorLafond, Valentine
dc.contributor.authorLeemans, Rik
dc.contributor.authorMokrech, Marc
dc.contributor.authorNunez, Sarahi
dc.contributor.authorSandars, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorSnell, Rebecca
dc.contributor.authorTakahashi, Kiyoshi
dc.contributor.authorTanaka, Akemi
dc.contributor.authorWimmer, Florian
dc.contributor.authorYoshikawa, Minoru
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-06T16:41:22Z
dc.date.available2018-11-06T16:41:22Z
dc.date.issued2018-10-02
dc.description.abstractResponses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationStefan Fronzek, Timothy R. Carter, Nina Pirttioja, et al., (2019) Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. Regional Environmental Change, March 2019, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp. 679–693en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1436-3798
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13622
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherSpringeren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectImpact modelen_UK
dc.subjectSensitivity analysisen_UK
dc.subjectTemperatureen_UK
dc.subjectPrecipitationen_UK
dc.subjectPopulationen_UK
dc.subjectGross domestic product (GDP)en_UK
dc.titleDetermining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfacesen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Sectoral_and_regional_sensitivity_to_climate_and_socio-economic_change-2018.pdf
Size:
1.19 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.63 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Staff publications (SWEE)