Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought

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dc.contributor.authorParsons, David J.
dc.contributor.authorRey, Dolores
dc.contributor.authorTanguy, Maliko
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-04T14:09:19Z
dc.date.available2019-03-04T14:09:19Z
dc.date.issued2019-02-26
dc.description.abstractDrought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975–2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on-farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationDavid J. Parsons, Dolores Rey, Maliko Tanguy and Ian P. Holman. Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought. Agricultural Systems, Volume 173, July 2019, Pages 119-129en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0308-521X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.015
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13959
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectAgricultureen_UK
dc.subjectDrought indexen_UK
dc.subjectDrought impactsen_UK
dc.subjectUnited Kingdomen_UK
dc.subjectSPEIen_UK
dc.titleRegional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of droughten_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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