The aeropolitical realities underpinning the formation of an asean single air market

This study investigated regional air transport liberalisation in Southeast Asia based on a mixed-methods approach which incorporated a pilot survey (n=10), an online expert survey (n=50) and in-depth interviews (n=15), while employing a strategic framework adapted for this study called the Aeropolitical Regional Integration Framework (ARIF). The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has significantly promoted regional air transport liberalisation. This initiative is an integral part of the ASEAN Community project, designed to enhance connectivity and economic development that contribute to building a regional identity. However, despite initial progress, the regional open skies agreement known as the ASEAN single aviation market (ASAM) has not unfolded as anticipated, with existing literature suggesting that aeropolitical challenges are among the primary reasons for this. The hybrid thematic analysis of the data, incorporating both inductive and deductive approaches, has identified key aeropolitical barriers and opportunities from political economy, geopolitics, and geoeconomics dimensions. Additionally, the research identifies mechanisms ASEAN employs to mitigate these challenges and capitalise on the opportunities. Within this study, aeropolitics emerges from the dynamic interplay among diverse state entities, with a particular emphasis on power relations among smaller nations and superpowers, as well as non-state actors, including those beyond the aviation sector, across various levels — national, intraregional, and interregional — which collectively exert influence over the aviation market. Despite the strong influence of politics in the region, it also reveals a genuine desire within ASEAN for meaningful liberalisation of air markets. While ASEAN may not replicate the European-style single aviation market model, there is clear evidence that regional divisions and obstacles gradually diminish over time. The ASEAN Way is not inertia in disguise but rather progress in a different form, where ASEAN does not aim to establish a single regulatory institution but pursues advanced cooperation within its member states and regional partners.