Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

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dc.contributor.authorLee, Heera
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Calum
dc.contributor.authorSeo, Bumsuk
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.contributor.authorAudsley, Eric
dc.contributor.authorCojocaru, George
dc.contributor.authorRounsevell, Mark
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-29T18:44:11Z
dc.date.available2019-10-29T18:44:11Z
dc.date.issued2019-10-04
dc.description.abstractLand-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the 'Paris Agreement' to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 ◦C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15 % yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57 %). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationLee H, Brown C, Seo B, (2019) Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, October 2019, Article number 104009en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14649
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherIOPen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.titleImplementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformationen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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