A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales

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dc.contributor.authorTurner, Sean W. D.
dc.contributor.authorJeffrey, Paul
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-16T15:38:25Z
dc.date.available2020-10-16T15:38:25Z
dc.date.issued2020-10-23
dc.description.abstractThe current ‘Deployable Output’ approach for assessing water resources system performance in England and Wales is a practical, communicable means for assessing the adequacy of a water supply system and determining the relative benefits of proposed system enhancements. A recognised flaw with this approach is that it fails to characterise the severity of potential supply shortfalls, leading to mischaracterisation of risks and benefits associated with alternative candidate investments. Here, we propose a Monte Carlo procedure that could supplement the existing process by exposing the magnitude (% water demand unserved) and duration (number of days) of supply curtailments under a range of drought scenarios. The method is demonstrated using a realistic, stylised water resources system and a discrete number of infrastructure investments. Results demonstrate that vulnerability assessments can expose previously unidentified risks that might radically alter a planner’s estimate of the cost‐effectiveness of a particular investment.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationurner SW, Jeffrey PJ. (2021) A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales. Water and Environment Journal, Volume 35, Issue 1, February 2021, pp. 417-424en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1747-6585
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12639
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/15896
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherWileyen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectwater resources systems analysisen_UK
dc.subjectvulnerabilityen_UK
dc.subjectstochastic hydrologyen_UK
dc.subjectrisk assessmenten_UK
dc.titleA simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Walesen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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