Systemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseases

dc.contributor.advisorLonghurst, Philip
dc.contributor.advisorPollard, Simon
dc.contributor.authorDelgado, Joao Pedro Correa
dc.date.accessioned2013-05-08T11:17:10Z
dc.date.available2013-05-08T11:17:10Z
dc.date.issued2011-11
dc.description.abstractContext and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/7896
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherCranfield Universityen_UK
dc.rights© Cranfield University 2011. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner.en_UK
dc.subjectPolicy developmenten_UK
dc.subjectCarcass disposal assessmenten_UK
dc.subjectImport risk assessmenten_UK
dc.subjectLow probability eventsen_UK
dc.subjectRisk mitigation strategiesen_UK
dc.titleSystemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseasesen_UK
dc.typeThesis or dissertationen_UK
dc.type.qualificationlevelDoctoralen_UK
dc.type.qualificationnamePhDen_UK

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