Global changes in 20‐year, 50‐year, and 100‐year river floods

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dc.contributor.authorSlater, L.
dc.contributor.authorVillarini, G.
dc.contributor.authorArchfield, S.
dc.contributor.authorFaulkner, D.
dc.contributor.authorLamb, R.
dc.contributor.authorKhouakhi, Abdou
dc.contributor.authorYin, J.
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-15T11:54:19Z
dc.date.available2021-04-15T11:54:19Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-18
dc.description.abstractConcepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationSlater L, Villarini G, Archfield S, et al., (2021) Global changes in 20‐year, 50‐year, and 100‐year river floods.Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 48, Issue 6, March 2021, Article number e2020GL091824en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/16577
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)en_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectnonstationarityen_UK
dc.subjectfloodsen_UK
dc.subjectprobabilitiesen_UK
dc.titleGlobal changes in 20‐year, 50‐year, and 100‐year river floodsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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