Towards improving the accuracy of opium yield estimates with remote sensing

Yearly estimates of illicit opium production are key metrics for assessing the effectiveness of the counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan. Poor security often prevents access to sample locations and puts pressure on field surveyors, resulting in biased sampling and errors in data recording. Supportive methods using aerial digital photography for improving yield estimates were investigated in the UK in 2004, 2005, and 2010. There were good empirical relationships between normalized difference vegetation index and poppy yield indicators (mature capsule volume and dry capsule yield) for individual fields. The results suggested a good generalized relationship across all sampled fields and years (R2 > 0.70) during the 3–4 week period including poppy flowering. Regression estimates using this relationship with the imagery counteracted bias in the sample estimate of yield, reduced sample error, and enabled the production of detailed maps showing the poppy yield distribution. The application of this approach using very-high-resolution satellite imagery was investigated in the context of the annual opium survey in Afghanistan. Initial results indicated the potential for bias correction of yield estimates using a smaller and targeted collection of ground observations as an alternative to random sampling.