Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling
dc.contributor.author | Hassall, Kirsty L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Dailey, Gordon | |
dc.contributor.author | Zawadzka, Joanna | |
dc.contributor.author | Milne, Alice E. | |
dc.contributor.author | Harris, Jim A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Corstanje, Ronald | |
dc.contributor.author | Whitmore, Andrew P. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-10-09T11:30:23Z | |
dc.date.available | 2019-10-09T11:30:23Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019-10-01 | |
dc.description.abstract | Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies modelled by the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at https://github.com/KirstyLHassall/ACE Hassall (2019) | en_UK |
dc.identifier.citation | Hassall KL, Dailey G, Zawadzka J, Milne AE, Harris JA, Corstanje R and Whitmore AP. Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 122, December 2019, Article number 104539 | en_UK |
dc.identifier.issn | 1364-8152 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14598 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_UK |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_UK |
dc.rights | Attribution 4.0 International | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | * |
dc.subject | Bayes nets | en_UK |
dc.subject | Belief networks | en_UK |
dc.subject | Expert elicitation | en_UK |
dc.subject | Conditional probability tables | en_UK |
dc.title | Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling | en_UK |
dc.type | Article | en_UK |
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