Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling

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dc.contributor.authorHassall, Kirsty L.
dc.contributor.authorDailey, Gordon
dc.contributor.authorZawadzka, Joanna
dc.contributor.authorMilne, Alice E.
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Jim A.
dc.contributor.authorCorstanje, Ronald
dc.contributor.authorWhitmore, Andrew P.
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-09T11:30:23Z
dc.date.available2019-10-09T11:30:23Z
dc.date.issued2019-10-01
dc.description.abstractExpert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies modelled by the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at https://github.com/KirstyLHassall/ACE Hassall (2019)en_UK
dc.identifier.citationHassall KL, Dailey G, Zawadzka J, Milne AE, Harris JA, Corstanje R and Whitmore AP. Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 122, December 2019, Article number 104539en_UK
dc.identifier.issn1364-8152
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14598
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectBayes netsen_UK
dc.subjectBelief networksen_UK
dc.subjectExpert elicitationen_UK
dc.subjectConditional probability tablesen_UK
dc.titleFacilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modellingen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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