Introducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversion

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dc.contributor.authorCollett, Gareth
dc.contributor.authorLadyman, Melissa
dc.contributor.authorTemple, Tracey
dc.contributor.authorHazael, Rachael
dc.contributor.authorMcNaught, Ken R.
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-19T09:00:26Z
dc.date.available2023-09-19T09:00:26Z
dc.date.issued2024-09
dc.date.pubOnline2023-08-21
dc.description.abstractCountering improvised explosive devices (C-IED) is a significant theme of the twenty-first century, particularly in regions with limited governance and a fragile rule of law. Many strands of activity are involved, with human interaction proving difficult to predict. However, Bayesian belief updating (used across several academic fields to provide insight into human behaviours) has never been considered. Given the breadth of C-IED, this research focusses on a state affected by conflict, and where illicit diversion of explosive chemical precursors (ECP) for IED manufacture is supported by the population. It aims to represent (both visually and probabilistically) a methodology by which human relationships could be better understood, thereby promoting belief updating as new evidence becomes available. Such belief updating would refine focus and improve resource mobilisation.en_UK
dc.description.journalNameSecurity Journal
dc.format.extent793-815
dc.identifier.citationCollett G, Ladyman M, Temple T, et al., (2024) Introducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversion, Security Journal, Volume 37, September 2024, pp. 793-815en_UK
dc.identifier.eissn1743-4645
dc.identifier.issn0955-1662
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00395-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/20240
dc.identifier.volumeNo37
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherSpringeren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectExplosive chemical precursor (ECP)en_UK
dc.subjectBayesian belief updatingen_UK
dc.subjectCountering improvised explosive devices (C-IED)en_UK
dc.subjectHome-made explosive (HME)en_UK
dc.titleIntroducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversionen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-07-23

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