Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation

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dc.contributor.authorJones, Aled
dc.contributor.authorBridle, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorKatherine, Denby
dc.contributor.author[...]
dc.contributor.authorBurgess, Paul
dc.contributor.authoret al.
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-31T12:11:47Z
dc.date.available2023-10-31T12:11:47Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-12
dc.description.abstractWe report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationJones A, et al., (2023) Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation. Sustainability, Volume 15, Issue 20, October 2023, Article number 14783.en_UK
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su152014783
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/20473
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherMDPIen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectfood systemsen_UK
dc.subjectglobal catastrophic risken_UK
dc.subjectclimate changeen_UK
dc.subjectextreme weatheren_UK
dc.subjectecological collapseen_UK
dc.subjectscenariosen_UK
dc.subjectcascading risksen_UK
dc.titleScoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitationen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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