Future-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study

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dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Leandro
dc.contributor.authorHafezi, Mehdi
dc.contributor.authorLima, Larissa
dc.contributor.authorMillett, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorThompson, Jason
dc.contributor.authorWang, Ruoyu
dc.contributor.authorAkaraci, Selin
dc.contributor.authorGoel, Rahul
dc.contributor.authorReis, Rodrigo
dc.contributor.authorNice, Kerry A.
dc.contributor.authorZapata-Diomedi, Belen
dc.contributor.authorHallal, Pedro C.
dc.contributor.authorMoro, Esteban
dc.contributor.authorAmoako, Clifford
dc.contributor.authorHunter, Ruth F.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-11T12:33:43Z
dc.date.available2025-04-11T12:33:43Z
dc.date.freetoread2025-04-11
dc.date.issued2025-03-01
dc.date.pubOnline2025-03-19
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: The world faces increasing risk from more frequent and larger scale natural hazards, including infectious disease outbreaks (IDOs) and climate change-related extreme weather events (EWEs). These natural hazards are expected to have adverse mobility and public health impacts, with people living in cities especially vulnerable. Little is known about how transport systems can be optimally designed to make cities more resilient to these hazards. Our aim was to investigate how cities' transport systems, and their resulting mobility patterns, affect their capabilities to mitigate mobility and health impacts of future large-scale IDOs and EWEs. METHODS: System dynamics modelling was used to investigate how different city mobility scenarios can affect the health and mobility impacts of four plausible future IDO and EWE (flooding) shocks in three cities: Belfast, UK; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; and Delhi, India. Three city mobility scenarios with incremental degrees of modal shift towards active travel (private motor vehicle volume reduced to 50% and 20% of total road trip volume in vision 1 and 2, and motor vehicle volume [including buses] reduced to 20% of total road trip volume in vision 3) were tested. For each city and each IDO and EWE shock, we estimated the percentage of deaths prevented in visions 1, 2, and 3, relative to the reference scenario, as well as changes in mode share over time. FINDINGS: In all scenarios, all cities showed reduced susceptibility to flooding, with 4-50% of deaths potentially prevented, depending on case city, city mobility, and EWE scenario. The more ambitious the transition towards healthier city mobility patterns, the greater the resilience against flooding. Only vision 3 (the most ambitious transition) showed reduced vulnerability to IDOs, with 6-19% of deaths potentially prevented. Evolution of mode shares varied greatly across cities and mobility scenarios under the IDO shocks. INTERPRETATION: Our results emphasise the importance of well designed, forward-thinking urban transport systems that make cities more resilient and reduce the impact of future public health-related and climate-related threats. FUNDING: UK Prevention Research Partnership, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Health and Social Care Research and Development Office Northern Ireland.
dc.description.journalNameThe Lancet Planetary Health
dc.description.sponsorshipEconomic and Social Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research
dc.format.extentpp. e207-e218
dc.format.mediumPrint
dc.identifier.citationGarcia L, Hafezi M, Lima L, et al., (2025) Future-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 9, Issue 3, March 2025, pp. e207-e218
dc.identifier.eissn2542-5196
dc.identifier.elementsID566797
dc.identifier.issn2542-5196
dc.identifier.issueNo3
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00026-9
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/23747
dc.identifier.volumeNo9
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519625000269?via%3Dihub
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject4101 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
dc.subject4104 Environmental Management
dc.subject41 Environmental Sciences
dc.subject4206 Public Health
dc.subject42 Health Sciences
dc.subjectPrevention
dc.subject3.2 Interventions to alter physical and biological environmental risks
dc.subject4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation
dc.subject4104 Environmental management
dc.subject4206 Public health
dc.subject.meshCities
dc.subject.meshPublic Health
dc.subject.meshHumans
dc.subject.meshTransportation
dc.subject.meshBrazil
dc.subject.meshIndia
dc.subject.meshClimate Change
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoretical
dc.subject.meshNorthern Ireland
dc.subject.meshExtreme Weather
dc.subject.meshFloods
dc.subject.meshHumans
dc.subject.meshPublic Health
dc.subject.meshCities
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoretical
dc.subject.meshTransportation
dc.subject.meshBrazil
dc.subject.meshIndia
dc.subject.meshNorthern Ireland
dc.subject.meshFloods
dc.subject.meshClimate Change
dc.subject.meshExtreme Weather
dc.subject.meshCities
dc.subject.meshPublic Health
dc.subject.meshHumans
dc.subject.meshTransportation
dc.subject.meshBrazil
dc.subject.meshIndia
dc.subject.meshClimate Change
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaks
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoretical
dc.subject.meshNorthern Ireland
dc.subject.meshExtreme Weather
dc.subject.meshFloods
dc.titleFuture-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.subtypeJournal Article
dcterms.dateAccepted2025-01-31

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