Analysis of the traffic conflict situation for speed probability distributions

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dc.contributor.authorÖreg, Zs.
dc.contributor.authorShin, Hyo-Sang
dc.contributor.authorTsourdos, Antonios
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-12T09:15:19Z
dc.date.available2023-04-12T09:15:19Z
dc.date.issued2023-03-30
dc.description.abstractThe increasingly widespread application of drones and the emergence of urban air mobility leads to a challenging question in airspace modernisation: how to create a safe and scalable air traffic management system that can handle the expected density of operations. Increasing the number of vehicles in a given airspace volume and enabling routine operations are essential for these services to be economically viable. However, a higher density of operations increases risks, poses a great challenge for coordination and necessitates the development of a novel solution for traffic management. This paper contributes to the research towards such a strategy and the field of airspace management by calculating and analysing the conflict probability in an en-route, free-flight scenario for autonomous vehicles. Analytical methods are used to determine the directional dependence of conflict probabilities for exponential and normal prescribed speed probability distributions. The notions of geometric and speed conflict are introduced and distinguished throughout the calculations of the paper. The effect of truncating the set of available flight speeds is also investigated. The sensitivity of the calculated results to speed and heading perturbations is studied within the analytical framework and verified by numerical simulations. Results enable a fresh approach to conflict detection and resolution through distribution shaping and are intended to be used in an integrated, stochastic coordination framework.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationOreg Zs, Shin H-S, Tsourdos A. (2023) Analysis of the traffic conflict situation for speed probability distributions. The Aeronautical Journal, Volume 127, Issue 1314, August 2023, pp. 1380-1434en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0001-9240
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1017/aer.2023.12
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/19438
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherCambridge University Pressen_UK
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectautonomous systemsen_UK
dc.subjectunmanned traffic managementen_UK
dc.subjectanalytical modellingen_UK
dc.subjectair traffic conflict detectionen_UK
dc.subjectconflict detection systemsen_UK
dc.subjectstochastic analysisen_UK
dc.titleAnalysis of the traffic conflict situation for speed probability distributionsen_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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