Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain's future clay-related subsidence hazard

Show simple item record Pritchard, Oliver G. Hallett, Stephen H. Farewell, Timothy S. 2015-12-08T10:21:16Z 2015-12-08T10:21:16Z 2015-09-05
dc.identifier.citation Pritchard, O.G., Hallett, S.H. and Farewell, T.S. 2015. Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain's future clay-related subsidence hazard. Climatic change, 133(4), pages 635-650. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1486-z en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009
dc.description.abstract Clay-related subsidence is Great Britain’s (GB) most damaging soil-related geohazard, costing the economy up to £500 million per annum. Soil-related geohazard models based on mineralogy and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) derived from historic weather data have been used in risk management since the 1990s. United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09) suggest that regions of GB will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters through to 2050. As a result, PSMD fluctuations are expected to increase, exacerbating the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils. A forward-looking approach is now required to mitigate the impacts of future climate on GB’s built environment. We present a framework for incorporating probabilistic projections of PSMD, derived from a version of the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator, into a clay subsidence model. This provides a novel, national-scale thematic model of the likelihood of clay-related subsidence, related to the top 1-1.5m soil layer, for three time periods; baseline (1961-1990), 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069). Results indicate that much of GB, with the exception of upland areas, will witness significantly higher PSMDs through to the 2050’s. As a result, areas with swelling clay soils will be subject to proportionately increased subsidence hazard. South-east England will likely incur the highest hazard exposure to clay-related subsidence through to 2050. Potential impacts include increased incidence of property foundation subsidence, alongside deterioration and increased failure rates of GB’s infrastructure networks. Future clay-subsidence hazard scenarios provide benefit to many sectors, including: finance, central and local government, residential property markets, utilities and infrastructure operators. en_UK
dc.description.sponsorship EPSRC en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Springer en_UK
dc.rights This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Information: No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
dc.title Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain's future clay-related subsidence hazard en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK

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