Acquisition cost estimating methodology for aircraft conceptual design

Abstract

The research was conducted in the light of a training programme which will train a total of 150 engineers of AVIC I in Cranfield University during a period of 3 years. Cost has become an essential driver to aircraft design, as well as performances due to either the limited defence budget or competitive airline market. Consequently, knowing the possible cost prior to making actual expenditure will help managers to make proper decisions and allocate resources efficiently, and designers to optimize their work. Existing aircraft cost estimating models are outdated and mainly based on a database including both military and civil aircraft with various missions. This research concentrated on commercial jet aircraft and was to develop a suitable acquisition cost estimating methodology for conceptual design from a commercial aircraft manufacturer’s perspective. The literature reviewing took a comprehensive overview of some widely-applied cost estimating methods: Analogy, Parametric, Bottom-up, Feature-based costing, Activitybased costing (ABC), Expert judgement, and etc. Some practical cost models were also reviewed to learn the application of cost estimating in the aerospace industry. Then, analogy and parametric approaches were selected to perform the methodology development considering the limited data available at the conceptual design phase. An investigation was deployed to identify the actual problems in practice. The results helped to recognize the needs of industry. Also, the preparation works for development are presented to understand the environment. With subjective judgement and statistical techniques, a series of cost estimating relationships (CERs) were achieved, in which some historic explanatory parameters remained or were eliminated, and some new ones introduced. Size of aircraft became another variable besides weight. As to engines, all developed explanatory variables have been revealed in prior researches. The validation of CERs proves that they can provide reliable cost estimates with high accuracy and can be applied to conceptual design. In addition, a case study was conducted using a baseline aircraft defined in the group design project (GDP) and presents cost forecasting for the proposed aircraft. At last, discussion and conclusion presents an overview of the research. A framework for cost estimating system can be educed. Also, the future work is proposed for in-depth research.