Impact of climate change on first generation biofuels production in the 21st century

Abstract

This study assessed the potential (near, medium, and long term) impacts of climate change on first generation corn bioethanol and soybean biodiesel production in Gainesville, Florida, USA. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under climate change scenarios in the 21st century with direct effect of CO2. Weather projection was made for each scenario using the 10 year weather data for the baseline period (1981–1990). Precipitation is projected to increase by +20, +10, -10, and -20% every month throughout the growing season. Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures are projected to increase by +1.5, +3, and +5oC. Atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase by +70 and +350ppm. Simulated yields (grains/seeds and by-products) were then used as inputs into the LCA models. Results show that while bioethanol from corn and biodiesel from soybean offers some potential for GHG emissions savings per cultivated ha of set-aside land, this is tempered by rising air temperature. However, increased atmospheric levels of CO2 relative to current condition would reduce the severe impact of warming. Only soybean biodiesel will be positively affected by climate changes.