Development of a neural network mathematical model for demand forecasting in fluctuating markets

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dc.contributor.author Ziarati, Martin
dc.contributor.author Bilgili, Erdem
dc.contributor.author Singh, Lakhvir
dc.contributor.author Akdemir, Basak
dc.contributor.author Ziarati, Reza
dc.date.accessioned 2015-09-22T16:03:47Z
dc.date.available 2015-09-22T16:03:47Z
dc.date.issued 2013-09-19
dc.identifier.citation Ziarati M., Akdemir B., Bilgili E., Ziarati R. and Singh L. (2013). Development of a neural network mathematical model for demand forecasting in fluctuating markets. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Manufacturing Research (ICMR2013), Cranfield University, UK, 19th – 20th September 2013, pp 163-168 en_UK
dc.identifier.isbn 9781907413230
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9456
dc.description.abstract Research has shown that Neural Networks (NNs) when trained appropriately are the best forecasting system compared to conventional techniques. Research has shown that there is no system to accurately forecast sudden changes in demand for a given product. This paper reports on the development of a recovery method when a sudden change in demand has taken place. This error in forecasting demand leads to either excessive inventories of the product or shortages of it and can lead to substantial financial losses for the company producing or marketing the product. Two recovery methods have been developed and described in this paper: RZ recovery and Exponential Smoothing (ES). In the RZ recovery once a sudden change has taken place, a ‘soft’ Poke-Yoke (PY) system is setup warning the company that the normal forecasting system can no longer be relied upon and a recovery system needs to be initiated, with re-forecasting initiated. en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Cranfield University Press en_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseries Uncertainty and Modelling en_UK
dc.relation.ispartofseries 9 en_UK
dc.subject forecasting en_UK
dc.subject artificial neural network en_UK
dc.subject exponential smoothing en_UK
dc.title Development of a neural network mathematical model for demand forecasting in fluctuating markets en_UK
dc.type Conference proceedings en_UK


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