Abstract:
The prime goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is to control accident
risk. Some key questions are posed, including: What do design safety targets really
mean and imply for risk modelling? In what circumstances can future accident risk
really be modelled with sufficient precision? If risk cannot be estimated with
precision, then how is safety to be assured with traffic growth and
operational/technical changes? This paper endeavours to answer these questions
by an analysis of the nature of accidents, causal factors and practical collision risk
modelling. The main theme is how best to combine sound safety evidence and real
world hazard analysis in a coherent and systematic framework.
