Citation:
Jerry Knox and Melvyn Kay. Teasing out the impacts of climate change on agricultural development. Outlook on Agriculture, 2010, Volume 39, Issue 4, pp237-238.
Abstract:
plethora of articles, books, and academic papers. Not least are the detailed and
extensive publications of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
which set out in their latest assessment (AR4), the scientific, technical, and
socio-economic information relevant for understanding the risks posed by human-
induced climate change, and the policy options for dealing with it. Although it
is useful to study and identify the specific benefits and risks of a changing
climate, in practical terms, the future of the world in which we live will be
influenced as much, if not more, by a rich mix of population growth and socio-
economic development and fundamentally the need to produce more food with fewer
resources. Indeed, these issues are the very reasons why we now have to face a
changing climate which will in turn be impacted by it. In 2009, the UK Chief
Scientist Professor John Beddington warned that by 2030 global food shortages,
scarce water and insufficient energy resources would unleash public unrest,
cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people fled the worst-affected
regions of the world and sought refuge in ‘safe havens'. This was the so-called
'perfect storm' in which climate change was seen as yet another dark cloud on
the horizon. He warned that food reserves were at a 50 year low, but by 2030 we
would need 50% more food and 30% more fresh water. "There are dramatic problems
out there, particularly with water and food, but energy also, and they are all
intimately connected" Beddington said. Other eminent scientists, such as James
Lovelock in his book ‘The Final Warning - the vanishing face of Gaia' have
similarly urged for a ‘call to arms' to combat climate change and the perils
ahead unless we reduce our carbon emissions and control population growth. When
Thomas Malthus talked of the inextricable links between food production and
population growth in 1798, few people would have thought it possible that his
‘Malthusian curse' could again destabilize society in the 21st Century. Let's
hope that climate change will not suffer ‘media malaise' and the urgency to deal
with these issues will not be sidelined by short-term priorities for economic
regeneration. Whilst we talk a lot about climate change in the developed world,
in reality it is in the developing world where the impacts of climate change
will be felt most. This is home to millions of the most disadvantaged people who
depend on renewable natural resources for their livelihoods. For this reason we
asked a number of leading specialists to prepare short but informed insights
into the impacts of climate change across a range of natural resources in the
context of agricultural development, both in the developed world, and developing
world, to provide some comparison of both the issues and priorities. We asked
them not to get bogged down in the detail but to draw out the salient issues as
they see them. The result is this set of integrated papers which address the
subjects of agriculture and food production, forestry, livestock, and the
implications for engineering on water security. We hope they provide you with a
refreshing perspective on the outlook for agriculture and that you find them
both interesting and in